Wed 9 Mar 2011
Will SA Refuse To Swallow ZANU (PF) Propaganda?
Posted by admin under Current Crisis
No Comments
The outcome of the elections that President Robert Mugabe wants for later this year is crucial to the future of the country and of the entire southern African region, political analysts warned this week.
Zimbabwe stands on the brink of a catastrophe and the international community must act to prevent the total collapse of the rule of law and avert a humanitarian crisis in the region.
Mugabe has threatened to dissolve Parliament and call a fresh poll even before the writing of the new constitution is complete, alleging his GNU partners are dithering and attempting to derail the polls this year by denying funding to COPAC, the commission spearheading the drafting of the new governance charter.
A volatile mix of factors renders the current situation in Zimbabwe highly dangerous. Should Mugabe forge ahead with his plan and subsequently declare himself the winner of that presidential election in the face of clear evidence of vote rigging and subversion of the electoral process, these elements risk causing an explosion with devastating consequences.
Claim Victory
Promise Mkwananzi, a former president of the students union, ZINASU, and a political commentator said: “I have argued repeatedly that a post-election mass uprising is the only way to transfer power in Zimbabwe – but that must be preceded by one vital pre-condition. The MDC must and can, despite the electoral environment, win the 2011 elections overwhelmingly, while making it clear to the people that the responsibility to claim victory lies squarely and solely with Zimbabweans.”
Over recent months, Mugabe has erected a highly repressive system of governance in Zimbabwe.
Using mob violence, he has created an atmosphere of fear throughout the country.
Mkwananzi believes old methods will not bring any new results in this election. He says the MDC should stop wasting time campaigning to the urban electorate, what he calls “preaching to the converted.” The party should rather find creative ways to disable Zanu (PF) violence, particularly in the rural areas.
“The MDC-T top leadership must be seen to be in Tamandayi, Chendambuya, Donkwedonkwe, Ngindoma, Munyazani, Mpandawana, Mbembesi, inspiring the people with their visibility,” Mkwananzi said.
All available indicators demonstrate that popular support for Mugabe is low, even though he is on the rebound. Recent polling shows that the vast majority of Zimbabweans do not wish him in office for another term. In spite of increasing political violence, there is still a high expectation that peaceful change can occur in the country, through the democratic process.
If the outcome of the election is perceived as unfair, there is likely to be deep frustration among the population and this frustration may be expressed through a mass uprising, Egypt style. Protests and expressions of dissatisfaction are also likely to be met with increased government-sponsored violence.
Egypt Moment
University of Zimbabwe political science professor John Makumbe says Mugabe knows that the subversion of democracy in Zimbabwe will likely influence an “Egypt moment”.
“I guess he is having serious nightmares these days,” Makumbe says.
Zimbabwe’s economy has been stagnant because Mugabe’s indigenisation bombast has spooked investors. Western countries with the resources to help have demanded more political reforms before pumping money into the economy. Most of them want Mugabe off the political stage.
Mkwananzi says the international community must recognize that this combination of factors threatens the entire region because instability in Zimbabwe will spark another mass exodus as witnessed in the last elections.
Hundreds of thousands fled to neighbouring South Africa, leading to a migrant crisis that has given Pretoria headaches. In addition, destabilization will have extremely negative consequences for investment in southern Africa, damaging the economies of many states.
Vote Rigging
Very real fears are already being expressed about vote-rigging and subversion of the electoral process. If the election is seriously flawed, it is imperative that the entire international community respond immediately and all states refuse to recognize the results, says political commentator Ronald Shumba.
“SADC states must take the lead in speaking out clearly to condemn any failure by the Zimbabwean government to afford its people the right to choose their leader through free and fair elections in accordance with national, regional and international norms and standards,” he said.
“The United States must use its power and influence in Africa and with its allies around the world to assist the Zimbabwean population in averting a human rights and humanitarian calamity through observance of the democratic process and restoration of the rule of law.”
South Africa has said Zimbabwe will have to complete the constitution reform process before any election is held, but it was unclear on Saturday that the public pronouncement by SADC’s official mediator would affect an election now just months away.
Sabre Rattling
South Africa’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Marius Fransman, said in a strongly worded statement reflecting growing frustration with Zanu (PF)’s election sabre rattling, that any election held before the completion of the constitutional reform process would be illegal.
But analysts said South Africa’s ruling may make little difference since Mugabe is hell bent on an election now. It suggested that the president could even force an election anyway under his own powers, notwithstanding provisions of the GPA.
“The South African position and that of SADC is to ensure that the next elections as envisaged in the GPA are held under a new constitution that would have been the product of the constitution-making process supported by the Zimbabwean electorate through a referendum,” said Fransman.
“Any calls for elections without the finalisation of the constitution-making process are in breach of the GPA as well as the Constitution, which gives legitimacy to the inclusive government.”
Police have banned all MDC meetings and rallies as the country edges warily toward an August vote in which Tsvangirai poses the strongest challenge of Mugabe’s 31 years in power.
The deteriorating situation in Zimbabwe, where Mugabe is accused of using violence to rig the vote, is expected to dominate the forthcoming SADC Troika summit. President Jacob Zuma, who has dispatched his facilitation team to Zimbabwe over the past few weeks, must surely know there is a general state of fear. The MDC has condemned the police, who stand accused of turning a blind eye to atrocities committed by mobs loyal to Mugabe. The police accuse the MDC of causing all the violence.
That South Africa has spoken out in this way reveals a new strength of feeling and a determination not to be misled by propaganda.
(Source)
