Messages From Zimbabwe

A ROADMAP TO DEMOCRACY IN ZIMBABWE

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1. Current situation in Zimbabwe

15 September 2009 marked the one year anniversary of the signing of the Global Political Agreement (GPA) that resulted in the establishment of an inclusive, power-sharing government in Zimbabwe between the Zanu-PF and the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).

The GPA was regarded as the first positive step towards Zimbabwe emerging from the political, economic and humanitarian crisis that has plagued the country for the last few years and was considered by many as a new hope for restoring Zimbabwe to the thriving country it once was.

Since the signing of the GPA, new policies introduced by the MDC-led finance ministry have seen the country move towards a degree of economic stability, largely as a result of the denuded Zimbabwean Dollar being shelved and replaced with the US dollar and South African rand. Previously empty shelves in shops are also slowly filling up with products again and many hospitals and schools were re-opened.

However, uncertainty and instability still dominates the political arena in Zimbabwe largely due to Robert Mugabe and his Zanu-PF supporters refusing to relinquisheven the slightest degree of power to the MDC. It has become increasingly evident in recent weeks and months that Mugabe has adopted a smoke and mirrors approach to the GPA which he merely signed to appease the regional and international community while continuing his power grabs and human rights abuses.

Over the last eight months Mugabe and his party have reneged on a number of agreements in the GPA including:

Refusing to appoint new provincial governors from the MDC;

Refusing to revisit his unilateral appointments of Central Bank Governor Gideon Gono and Attorney-General Johannes Tomana as well as refusing to appoint Roy Bennett (MDC) as deputy minister of agriculture;

Arresting a number of MDC parliamentarians in order to weaken the party’s representation in Parliament;

Continuing with land grabs and violence against ordinary Zimbabweans.

Critically, the well publicised tension between Zanu-PF and the MDC has spilt over to the negotiations surrounding the re-writing of a new constitution for Zimbabwe, which will pave the way for free and fair elections and democratic consolidation in the country. Mugabe is hell-bent on adopting the Kariba Constitution, drafted in secret by Zanu-PF, while the MDC obviously rejects this proposal.

Rumours have surfaced that the MDC has been considering pulling out of the unity government and it appears that the recent re-arrest of Roy Bennett on terrorism charges could be the final straw for the party. Prime Minister Tsvangirai has suspended ministerial meetings as well as all government appointments in reaction to the arrest and has stated both of these would only resume once the issues surrounding Bennett have been resolved.

It is clear that despite the slight economic upturn in recent months the GPA has stalled and has not provided a solution to the political instability in the country and as a result Zimbabwe is no closer to a democratic solution.

Both the UN and the EU refuse to lift sanctions imposed on Zimbabwe as they believe there is no evidence of real change and reform in the country, nor has the GPA been fully implemented and adhered to. This stance has recently come under criticism by members of the Southern African Development community (SADC) and more specifically the South African government which recently called for these sanctions to be lifted as in President Jacob Zuma’s words, “this will help quicken the process of the implementation of the political agreement”.

Yet while calling for sanctions to be lifted both SADC and more specifically South Africa have failed to make a constructive contribution towards assisting with and ensuring the success of the unity government and have also failed to hold both Zanu-PF and the MDC to the numerous undertakings they made when signing this agreement.

The DA believes that South Africa has failed to act because the ANC government does not have a cohesive policy framework on Zimbabwe that has specific, targeted objectives and a strategy to achieve these objectives.

The main reasons for the ANC government’s failure to develop a credible foreign policy on Zimbabwe, are the following:

As a political party it has fraternal links with Zanu-PF which constantly warp its ability to be objective about Zimbabwe generally and Mugabe specifically;

It has not consistently applied diplomatic pressure on Zanu-PF to live up to the Global Political Agreement (GPA);

It has not applied quiet but firm pressure via intelligence, defence and economic mechanisms on those close to Mugabe concerning an exit strategy;

It has not invested in the unity government to get basic services restarted – without which the whole GPA deal is dead; and

It has not provided real assistance in helping the government of Zimbabwe to normalise relations with the rest of the world, especially the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank.

Intrinsic to all these problems is Robert Mugabe. His participation in the GPA means whatever it achieves is tainted from first principles. While the DA supports the GPA as the first positive step toward restoring democracy in Zimbabwe in recent years, we believe that recent developments in the country show that the GPA cannot succeed in and of itself. The establishment of a properly functioning democracy in Zimbabwe must aim to achieve, first and foremost, a system from which Robert Mugabe is removed.

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2. Why the GPA is not working

There are a number of obstacles that have undermined the success of the GPA and which include the following:

2.1 Robert Mugabe and Zanu-PF

First and foremost the GPA has failed because the unity government that has resulted from it is based on flawed, illegitimate elections. Mugabe is only in power as president of this unity government because he rigged last year’s national and presidential elections.

It is very difficult to ask the majority of Zimbabweans to buy in to an election and the systems that result from it, if it is fundamentally compromised.

Since then he has reneged on most, if not all, of the stipulations in the GPA despite his undertaking to adhere to this agreement.

Consequently, Zanu-PF still holds most of the key positions in government and also has complete control over the security and military forces. Furthermore, democratic institutions such as the judiciary are far from independent and have become an extension of the arm of Zanu-PF and protect party interests at all times. In other words, the most basic functions required of state institutions in order to instil democratic values, norms and best practice are non-existent, and fulfilling the objectives of the GPA has become impossible as a result.

2.2 The AU, SADC and South Africa’s failure to apply pressure

All three of these stakeholders have failed to put the proper pressure on Robert Mugabe and his Zanu-PF party, despite the fact that he has reneged on the GPA and that his party continues to conduct human rights abuses against the people of Zimbabwe. While both the AU and, more specifically SADC, are in the best position to hold Robert Mugabe to the undertakings he has made and to take the necessary punitive action against him and his party, both structures have, as yet, failed to do so. The fact that Robert Mugabe and his party get away with breaking the promises they made when signing the GPA means that any respect for the agreement’s authority and integrity is eroded on an ongoing basis and there is a very real danger that the GPA has become worth nothing more than the piece of paper it is written on.

2.3 The Economic crisis

The current economic crisis that exists tends to supersede the political problems facing the country as most Zimbabweans still live in dire poverty and are extremely vulnerable to starvation and disease. As a consequence any relief or support provided by stakeholders is usually directed at addressing the humanitarian crisis.

However, this in turn means that little attention is paid to the political impasse that still exists – and which caused the economic meltdown in the first place. The result is that the political objectives contained in the GPA are overlooked or are regarded as being less important.

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3. Implications of the GPA failing for South Africa

Besides the impact the current situation has on Zimbabwe and its own people, it is important to understand that the current instability in Zimbabwe and the failure of the GPA has major implications for the Southern African region and South Africa.

3.1 Impact on South Africa

By far the most devastating effect of the Zimbabwe crisis on South Africa is the massive influx of Zimbabwean asylum seekers into the country. It is estimated that at least 3 million Zimbabweans have fled to seek refuge in neighbouring countries. The majority of these asylum seekers have entered South Africa and many are forced to camp outside government refugee offices across the country, without proper shelter or sanitation.

This situation has placed extra pressure on the country’s basic services including housing, water, sanitation and electricity as well as contributing to the already high unemployment rate in the country.

The effects of the pressure placed by these asylum seekers became most apparent by the xenophobic violence that broke out across the country last year.

3.2 Impact on the Southern African region

While Zimbabweans have also flowed into a number of other neighbouring countries the negative effects on the Southern African region is best demonstrated by the recent release of the internationally recognised indices that rated Zimbabwe extremely negatively.

Whilst the 2009 Mo Ibrahim Index of African Governance rated the Southern African region as the best performing region on the continent, it ranked Zimbabwe as the third worst governed country on the continent, after Somalia and Chad, thereby tarnishing the southern region’s reputation for good governance.

Furthermore, according to the latest Economic Freedom Index, Zimbabwe has suffered the world’s greatest loss of economic freedom. Obviously this, together with the practical consequences that underlie it, has a profound effect on potential foreign investors, both in Zimbabwe specifically and the region more generally.

These negative effects highlight the importance of overcoming the current obstacles that have caused to the GPA to stall and also how vital it is that South Africa and the Southern African region commit themselves to ensuring real change in Zimbabwe.

4. Purpose of a road map

The proposed road map is a neutral vision for creating a democracy in Zimbabwe. It is an ideal that all stakeholders should strive towards in order to realise a fully functioning democracy in Zimbabwe.

The core aim of our roadmap is to establish a legitimate, functioning democratic arrangement that is able to move towards democratic consolidation by re-establishing strong, independent democratic institutions, rebuilding a stable, robust economy and ensuring that the rights of all Zimbabweans are promoted and protected at all times.

For this to happen the country requires a legitimate government that has been elected to power through free and fair elections and which is beholden to a democratically negotiated constitution.

The format and contents of this constitution must be agreed to by all key role-players who have been elected by the people of Zimbabwe to represent and promote their interests.

That roadmap accompanies this document. We have separated it from this contextual analysis because, as an ideal, it should stand alone from this document. This point is critical to understanding the nature and purpose of a roadmap: it is not an analysis, it is an ideal – a neutral, objective plan of action to which both parties can commit themselves, the result of which is a legitimate and functioning constitutional democracy.

Here the existing GPA has an important role to play. Its core business, the DA believes, should be wanting for the adoption of this roadmap. The GPA, however flawed, is the only mechanism able to move the country toward a new approach.

However, a number of challenges need to be overcome for this road map to succeed and both the international and the regional community have a critical role to play in this regard.

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5. Challenges

5.1. Cost

First and foremost fresh elections as well as the negotiation process for a new constitution will be expensive exercises which Zimbabwe in its current economic situation will not be able to fund by itself.

It is therefore imperative that the international and regional community contributes financially to these elections.

A fund administered by an independent stakeholder, such as SADC, could be set up, which the international and regional community can contribute to.

Or alternatively, a fund such as the United Nations Democracy Fund – set up to consolidate and strengthen democratic institutions and processes in countries around the world-including providing financial support for elections and drafting constitutions – can be accessed.

5.2. Economic situation in Zimbabwe

As already mentioned the current humanitarian crisis could very likely detract from the importance of holding fresh elections and the formation of an interim government tasked with drafting a new constitution.

It is therefore imperative that the international and regional community provides some sort of targeted assistance to provide some relief to this the country’s people in order to ensure that the interim government can bring about political reform.

This does not mean that targeted sanctions against Mugabe and his supporters who continue to undermine democratic transformation in Zimbabwe must be lifted.

Instead, both the international and regional community must provide targeted financial assistance to ensure that reconstruction and development programmes are successfully launched and implemented in the country. These programmes must ensure, among other things, that schools and hospitals are reopened, that water, sanitation and road infrastructure is rebuilt, that civil society is given the necessary support to exercise its independence and that the country’s agricultural system is placed on the road to recovery.

However, it is imperative that this financial assistance is transparent and is closely monitored to ensure that this funding does not simply land up in the pockets of Mugabe and his supporters, who will use it to consolidate their power at the expense of the needs and rights of all Zimbabweans.

This financial assistance should preferably be centrally administered through trustworthy institutions that have experience in this area, such as the IMF, which could administer a fund which the international and regional community could contribute to Assistance to rebuild Zimbabwe’s economy does also not have to be purely financially based. A good example of technical assistance that can also be provided to uplift the country’s economy is that of the World Bank’s Multi-Donor Trust Fund (MDTF) which both the international and regional community can contribute towards. This fund, through analytical studies and pilot projects, aims to develop suitable instruments that can enable Government and donors to respond quickly to the country’s needs during re-engagement.

Lastly, if fresh elections are held and are free and fair then both the international and regional community should also look to increasing their trade relationship with the new government.

This could be done in the following ways:

Preferential treatment for South African businesses operating in Zimbabwe;

Preferential export tariffs related to services and labour capital;

Government guarantees on capital stock moved into Zimbabwe, e.g. Shoprite, Pick ‘n Pay, Sasol, mining houses, agri-business, SA banks, etc;

Encouraging fixed capital investments through preferential agreements;

Encouraging private public partnerships (PPPs) between the South African private sector and its Zimbabweans counterpart;

Preferential imports from Zimbabwe, such as agricultural produce, commodities, electricity, etc;

Government guarantees on trade, including exports of products and services to South African companies;

South African Reserve Bank support to the Zimbabwe Central Bank to re-establish its credibility, policies and liquidity;

Closer cooperation between the Department of Agriculture, the Land Bank and formal organized agriculture and its counterparts in Zimbabwe;

Include Zimbabwe in the SACU and the planned Monetary Union; Simplifying cross-border trade procedures to eliminate delays at border posts;

Supporting the upgrading and modernization of both equipment and training mechanisms; and

Capacity building programmes to ensure an improved and informed people in the business sector.

However, these trade agreements should be open, transparent and closely monitored and must be halted immediately if the interim government reneges on its mandate of drafting a new constitution and appears not to be committed to consolidating democracy in the country.

5.3. Consequences for failing to comply

One of the key challenges that must be overcome is ensuring Robert Mugabe and members of his Zanu-PF party adhere to these steps.

If Mugabe and his party undermine the elections, the results of the elections, or the interim government that is formed, the process of drafting a new constitution, and this roadmap, will fail in the same way the GPA has failed.

The international community and especially the AU and SADC must play a key role in ensuring that Mugabe and the Zanu-PF adhere to their undertakings, and must make it clear to them that there will be severe repercussions if they renege on their commitments.

Both the regional and the international community must set out, in no uncertain terms, what the consequences will be if any of these parties renege on their commitments.

These repercussions could include:

The reneging party loses representation in the interim government every time they fail to meet their commitments while the complying party gains extra representation at the expense of the reneging party;

If both parties fail to adhere to the agreement, SADC and the AU should suspend the country’s membership and all countries within these two structures as well as the international community must cut all economic, political and humanitarian ties with Zimbabwe. This step would also be evidence of SADC and the AU’s commitment to the process;

Continued and increased targeted sanctions on individuals and political parties who have reneged on their commitments which include travelling bans as well as freezing of assets;

Targeted sanctions be maintained against Robert Mugabe and his Zanu-PF supporters who try to prevent democratic transformation in Zimbabwe;

That an embargo on the sale and supply of all arms to Zimbabwe is implemented and enforced at all times;

That South Africa in particular and SADC in general use what economic leverage they have to put pressure on Zimbabwe to comply with the roadmap;

If the roadmap is agreed to and it is deliberately sabotaged the international and regional community must be prepared, as a last option, to resort to force to ensure it is complied with. The nature of that force, its particular details, would be determined by the nature and extent of the problem but this option must exist as final solution.

The success of the four steps in our roadmap depends on both the international and regional community placing firm pressure on political parties in Zimbabwe and taking punitive action swiftly and decisively against those guilty of undermining these steps.

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6. The Role of South Africa

The involvement and support of the international and regional community is vital to the success of our roadmap.

However, by far the most important role players are the AU and SADC. Both these structures are responsible for ensuring that countries on the African continent uphold and promote the democratic principles of freedom, social justice, peace and security as well as pursuing economic stability and democratic consolidation. Members of both the AU and SADC are required to ensure that other member countries are living up to these ideals.

South Africa is the major power in SADC and as a consequence was mandated by it to broker the GPA between the political parties in the country.

However, other than brokering this agreement, SADC and more particularly, South Africa, has a long track record of adopting an extremely soft approach towards Mugabe and his Zanu-PF party’s numerous democratic transgressions and human rights violations.

While the international community has repeatedly called on SADC and South Africa to adopt a tougher stance against Mugabe, both stakeholders have instead favoured the route of “silent diplomacy” and have chosen the simplest, most conciliatory solutions to the problems in Zimbabwe even if these weren’t necessarily the most effective – these include brokering the GPA instead of calling for a new round of elections, closely monitoring these elections and forcing Mugabe to relinquish power if his party lost.

This leniency towards Mugabe is also one of the main reasons why he has repeatedly reneged on the commitments he made when signing the GPA and why this agreement has failed in the breach.

It is clear that for our roadmap to work, SADC, and more importantly South Africa need to lead the way when it comes to putting pressure on Mugabe and Zanu-PF to relinquish power to the MDC and to end their reign of terror against the people of Zimbabwe.

Former President Thabo Mbeki led the way on the continent when it came to adopting a policy of quiet diplomacy towards Mugabe.

It was therefore extremely encouraging to hear ANC President Jacob Zuma speak out against Mugabe and his party prior to this year’s national elections. In April last year, after Mugabe had failed to timeously release the results of the Zimbabwean elections, Zuma stated that Zanu-PF’s behaviour was “not acceptable”. In June last year he stated that the ANC’s values were no longer in line with those of Zanu-PF, stating, “We cannot agree with Zanu-PF. We cannot agree with them on values.” Both those pronouncements were rightly interpreted as an indictment of President Thabo Mbeki and his mediation on Zimbabwe, of which Zuma was also critical.

However, Jacob Zuma appears to have toned down his previous criticism of Mugabe to a large degree since becoming President, despite the fact that Mugabe has continuously violated the GPA and his party continues to commit human rights abuses against ordinary Zimbabweans. This change of attitude is demonstrated best by Zuma’s failure to take any action against Mugabe while South Africa was the chair of SADC up to October this year.

Furthermore, recent comments made by Deputy President Motlanthe in Parliament also suggest that the ANC under Jacob Zuma has changed its tune since coming into power in April. When responding to a question recently in the National Assembly on how South Africa can justify supporting the lifting of sanctions against Robert Mugabe who has caused so much suffering for his people, Motlanthe responded “President Mugabe is an individual. He is now of advanced age and it is not helpful to devote all of our efforts on dealing with him as an individual.”

In other words, it appears, the South African government has once again adopted a soft and rather complacent approach to Zimbabwe.

As a neighbour to Zimbabwe and as a country that prides itself on its commitment to the democratic values and principles enshrined in our constitution it only makes sense that we would want to ensure that the region upholds these values and principles as well. We cannot be a champion for democracy when its very principles are being violated and undermined right on our doorstep. If we are serious about promoting an upholding democracy in the Southern African region, as well on the African continent as a whole, South Africa has to take the lead in bringing about change in Zimbabwe.

It is time for South Africa to take a firmer stance on the situation in Zimbabwe in the form of concrete actions, starting with a very clear foreign policy on Zimbabwe. As one of the most vibrant economies in the Southern African region, South Africa needs to take the lead role in putting pressure on SADC for Zimbabwe to appear before them and call for fresh elections in the country, as the GPA is failing in its mandate. This should be further aided by continued targeted sanctions against Zimbabwe, at least while Robert Mugabe and his Zanu-PF supporters continue to monopolize the country’s meager resources.

The DA believes that the South African government needs to use the road map presented here to not only bring about concrete change in Zimbabwe, but to also get both SADC and the AU to formally commit to actively participating in that process.

ANNEXURE

A ROADMAP to DEMOCRACY IN ZIMBABWE

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Requirements for the success of this roadmap

The main requirement for the success of this road map is the commitment of every stakeholder involved in this process to adhere to the agreements, timeframes and milestones that are stipulated within this roadmap.

This road map is a vision not only for Zimbabwe but for the Southern African Development community (SADC) region, Africa as a whole, as well as the international community.

It is only as strong as the political will of all these parties and it is therefore essential for political parties in Zimbabwe, South Africa, SADC, the African Union (AU) and the international community – including both the United Nations (UN) and the European Union (EU) to buy into this vision and to agree to the stipulations and resolutions contained therein. Failure to do so will end in the collapse of any agreement.

Four steps that must be taken

What follows is a short summary of the four steps that must be taken in order to bring the purpose of our roadmap to fruition.

STEP ONE

An agreement to hold fresh elections

There must be an agreement between all political parties in Zimbabwe to hold fresh elections. These elections must be legitimate, free and fair. They must be for the establishment of an interim government, the purpose of which is to negotiate a new constitution.

The unity government created by the Global Political Agreement (GPA) is the best mechanism to facilitate this agreement. Its structure is already in place and it can provide a suitable platform for talks and mediation between political parties so that they can reach an agreement to hold fresh elections.

A timetable for these elections, and the process for the establishment of an interim government and the subsequent drafting of a new constitution, must be established.

It must allow for the establishment of an election fund and the placement of independent party monitors.

Any party must be allowed to participate in the elections.

A condition of the fresh elections must be that Robert Mugabe not stand for re-election.

An exit strategy must be put in place that offers impunity from arrest and from being convicted for any crimes of which he might be guilty.

The agreement must stipulate that the elections be overseen by the UN, working together with regional and international stakeholders.

These international and regional monitors must ensure that the elections are free and fair, that no harassment or intimidation of voters occurs, that there is no result rigging and finally that these results, if accepted by independent observers as legitimate, are accepted and respected by all participating parties.

STEP TWO

Formation of an interim government

Once free and fair elections have taken place, an interim government must be set up, based on the results of these elections, whose main purpose will be to draft a new constitution for Zimbabwe. It is essential that clear targets as well as negotiating structures are established for this interim government in order to keep the drafting process on track.

Timelines must be set to which all parties within the interim government must strictly adhere. These timelines must be monitored by the UN, working together with the regional and international community.

The timeline must stipulate the consequences that will follow, should it not be adhered to.

In preparing the ground for negotiations, the draconian laws of the past decades that have frustrated free and open dialogue should be repealed. Furthermore, the international community and more importantly the AU and SADC must play a central role when it comes to facilitating this negotiation process and putting the necessary pressure on political parties within the interim government to come to an agreement and not undermine this negotiation process by refusing to make the necessary concessions.

STEP THREE

The formation of a new constitution

The interim government must agree to a new constitution for Zimbabwe.

The new constitution must provide for an accountable and multi-party democratic dispensation; respect for the rule of law; respect for the independence of other democratic institutions; and the promotion and protection of the fundamental human rights of all Zimbabweans.

In addition, the constitutional negotiators must consult widely with civil society so that once the constitution is ratified it is “owned” by the Zimbabwean people.

The international and regional community must be encouraged and “available” to provide any assistance necessary to this process as and when required.

STEP FOUR

Democratic elections

Following the ratification of the new constitution, elections must be held to elect a new multi-party government for Zimbabwe that is deferential to this constitution and ensures that every provision contained in it is respected, promoted and protected at all times.

This new democratically elected government must ensure that all government structures and democratic institutions are setup to bring about political and economic stability as well as democratic consolidation.

A five-year election cycle must be put in place to ensure a fully functioning, effective democracy that ensures that the government in Zimbabwe is held accountable through regular elections.

These elections must be held under the authority of an Independent Electoral Commission and must be monitored by the international and regional community to ensure they are free and fair, that the results are adhered to and respected by all political parties and that any transitions occur smoothly.

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