Messages From Zimbabwe

The man is nervous. He’s from the “President’s Office,” and that doesn’t mean serving tea to Robert Mugabe. It’s Zimbabwe’s version of the KGB: the Central Intelligence Organization.

He says all his phones — cell and land-line — are bugged, so we’re meeting in secret at a house belonging to a go-between in suburban Harare. His voice is barely audible, and he can’t sit still. As loyalty to Mugabe wanes, disillusioned insiders like the CIO man are becoming more willing to speak out. Still, he’s worried that talking to a foreign journalist could land him in serious trouble, even the spies are watched.

I’m worried too, in case the meeting backfires. Mugabe’s regime routinely denies foreign journalists entry to Zimbabwe, so I have no option but to work here illegally, undercover. There’s always an element of risk.

The CIO casts a long shadow. Small, everyday encounters become fraught with fear. Common coincidences are magnified into something sinister. Everyone knows how the CIO guys work: You never notice them until you spot a car behind you, then drive around the block a few times and find it’s still there.

There are plenty of terrifying stories about what happens to the people who are arrested, ranging from lengthy interrogation to torture. So I’m a little taken aback by the man from the President’s Office. He turns out to be thirtysomething, educated, articulate and urbane. Had he been born in any other country, he might have found a career at a bank, a think tank, a law firm. Instead, he learned about dirty tricks and disenchantment.

For years, the Mugabe regime has used the CIO to undermine and frighten the opposition, keep an eye on journalists and neutralize threats. But these days the name President’s Office is a misnomer, says the senior officer, who, unsurprisingly, speaks on condition of anonymity. He estimates that 60% to 70% of CIO officers - all but the hard-line ideologues - no longer back Mugabe.

That the dark heart of Mugabe’s web of fear is abandoning him underscores how tenuous his grip on power has become.

Like most of the population in this country besieged by inflation of 231 million percent - from the starving rural unemployed to hungry soldiers to bureaucrats whose salaries don’t cover their bus fares - the CIO staffers want change.

“There are a lot of professional [CIO] people who feel opposed to what’s going on,” the senior officer says. “But that doesn’t mean you don’t conform, or don’t obey your instructions, see what I mean? It’s disgruntlement, not rebellion.

“The current system has ceased to be functional. When you come to that stage, you obviously want change. Service delivery is dismal. Education is worst affected. There are no drugs in public institutions,” he says, reeling off the problems like an opposition speechwriter.

CIO headquarters, a drab, nine-story red-brick building on Selous Avenue in central Harare, has many small windows, like eyes gazing at the city. Just walking by evokes a chill.

Members of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change obsess about the organization. They avoid mention of meeting places in phone calls, talk in code, use encrypted e-mail and drive circuitous routes with an eye on the rear-view mirror.

Several years ago, MDC supporters said they were certain the party had been infiltrated by CIO spies determined to undermine the opposition by sowing discord among members.

They are right to be concerned, the CIO officer says. “Infiltration is the name of the game.”

He guffaws at the idea that the MDC might find that shocking. “It’s to be expected. It’s very normal.” His term for it is “information management.”

“With the opposition and some influential members of society, there is a standard procedure. It’s keeping an eye on everything they do. You want to know what’s happening and where, so that you can win.”

Likewise, he says, the opposition should expect plenty of dirty tricks in any power-sharing government.

If such a government comes to pass, that is. Even though Mugabe was forced into a power-sharing deal after African observers rejected the results of the June presidential election, it’s an idea that neither the regime nor the opposition is comfortable with, as witnessed in the tortuous negotiations ever since about who gets control of the economic posts and security forces.

Meanwhile, Mugabe holds on. The only solid obstacle he faces is of his own making: the economy, which is in such chaos that there’s not a lot of actual governing he can do.

The man from the CIO confirms that the agency set a trap for the former Roman Catholic archbishop of Bulawayo, Pius Ncube, one of Mugabe’s most vociferous critics. A CIO camera was placed in Ncube’s bedroom last year, and he was filmed in bed with a married woman. Photos were splashed across the state-owned Herald newspaper, which said the film was made by a private detective hired by the woman’s husband. Ncube resigned and has been silent ever since.

“If you are not only outspoken but staunchly against the head of state, surely things can go wrong,” the CIO man says. “You should be on guard. When you shoot at someone, you can expect them to shoot back.”

Hard-liners in the agency were crowing about Ncube’s humiliation for days, the officer says.

“There was a kind of happiness that this outspoken priest had been exposed. For others, this didn’t move the economy one inch. It was just a stunt, something you would rejoice over for one hour. It didn’t achieve anything.”

The officer has enough education and seniority to put him above having to get his hands dirty, like the agents who interrogate and torture suspects. He’s polite, sophisticated and wears a crisp suit.

He joined the CIO because of political ambition. Now, with Mugabe fading, he fears that his career in the CIO might not get him far after all.

Slowly and cautiously, he is trying get a foot into the opposition camp as well, by leaking information to the MDC’s security wing through an intermediary. But it’s a nerve-racking business, given the ruling party’s predilection for watching its own as avidly as it watches the enemy.

In years past, the officer says, the CIO higher-ups saw opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai as a buffoon. They poked fun at his chubby cheeks and looked down on his lack of education. To them, he was no match for Mugabe, with his numerous degrees and stinging rhetoric.

But most people in the CIO don’t joke about Tsvangirai anymore. They poke fun at Mugabe.

“People talk openly [about it] in the organization. There are certain things you would not have said openly, like statements against his excellency the president. Ah, but these days, people even say that.

“They say the old man should go. They even use, in a derogatory way, the term mudhara. It means ‘old man,’ but it’s not a respectful word.”

Tsvangirai is “not seen as very bright, but he’s accepted because of the leadership change that everyone wants to see. There’s no alternative. He is the alternative to the system. By virtue of that, he’s accepted.”

During the elections this year, CIO officers cruised around Harare, the capital, in search of suspicious-looking foreigners. I picked up a tail near the U.S. Embassy shortly after the March 29 vote. To make sure, I pulled suddenly into a coffee shop parking lot, without using my turn signal.

The car screeched in behind me. I walked into the coffee shop. I had a coffee, peeked out, and the car was still there. I ordered more coffee and sipped it slowly. It was still there.

I dawdled on and on. It was getting late. The coffee shop was about to close. I decided to go to a supermarket, and trawl among the almost empty shelves. Then maybe I could go somewhere for dinner. But where next, if he was still following me?

My tail, however, had a short attention span. He was gone by the time I left the coffee shop.

The CIO has always been one of the best-funded agencies. Regular police might struggle to find fuel for cars or charge sheets or typewriters that work, but the CIO has computers and reliable transportation.

“If you compare it with other ministries, you might say that the organization is well resourced. But if you compare 2000 and 2008, you will see that they [resources] are depleted,” the officer says.

“You start having situations where you are fighting for resources. We are looking at a situation where you are supposed to do A, B and C in a specific time. But where there are no resources, you can’t do A, B and C. What happens is compromised or half-baked information management. You end up coming up with a more crude than refined process.”

He sees the violence unleashed during the recent elections as primitive, crude and counterproductive. The so-called securocrats, he says, “are not so intellectually gifted; they’re shortsighted.”

“It’s not easy to align yourself with a diabolical or cruel way of doing things.”

When he joined the CIO, he was hoping for a speedy political trajectory in the ruling ZANU-PF party — and by that measure he has been successful. But he’s come to despise the deadening political conformity and stifling of criticism in the party.

To him that’s the systemic flaw that is killing Zimbabwe: the crushing of ideas.

“What has always happened - which I think is the weakness in the system - is that when a decision is taken, wrongly or rightly, you will have to end up conforming if you want to remain part of the group.”

So in public, he remains part of the system. But not in his heart.

(Source)

(Source)

This news will be welcomed by Zimbabweans in the UK. The decision in the latest test case is now doing the rounds with immigration lawyers and will no doubt be properly published in due course on the AIT website. It is a long decision and I will only quote from three of the final paragraphs to give a flavour of the decision:

“258. The evidence establishes clearly that those at risk on return to Zimbabwe on account of imputed political opinion are no longer restricted to those who are perceived to be members or supporters of the MDC but include anyone who is unable to demonstrate support for or loyalty to the regime or Zanu-PF. To that extent the country guidance in HS is no longer to be followed.

259. The fact of having lived in the United Kingdom for a significant period of time and of having made an unsuccessful asylum claim are both matters capable of giving rise to an enhanced risk because, subject to what we have said at paragraph 242 to 246 above, such a person is in general reasonably likely to be assumed to be a supporter of the MDC and so, therefore, someone who is unlikely to vote for or support the ruling party, unless he is able to demonstrate the loyalty to Zanu-PF or other alignment with the regime that would negate such an assumption.

260. The attempt by the regime to identify and suppress its opponents has moved from the individual to the collective. Thus, a person who returns to a home in an area where the MDC made inroads into the Zanu-PF vote at this year’s elections faces an enhanced risk as whole communities are being punished for the outcome in an attempt to change the political landscape for the future and to eliminate the MDC support base.”

Teachers and ex-teachers are singled out by the tribunal as being particularly at risk, and the tribunal goes on to recognise that there is a power-sharing arrangement now in place but it is too soon to say whether this will alleviate the risks.

The Home Office has been fighting this litigation tooth and nail in contravention of its obligations under the Refugee Convention, and it would be surprising if the Home Office did not choose to appeal. The view of the Home Office seems to have been (a) there was no risk on return on the basis of perceived disloyalty to the regime and (b) in any event we aren’t removing so what is the fuss about? The Home Office is entitled to take the view there is no risk, although most would say that there was very strong evidence that there was in fact a risk, but I would say that (b) contravenes international obligations. A refugee should be recognised as a refugee and given status. A similar thing happened with Kosovars a few years ago during the conflict there, where the Home Office routinely granted Exceptional Leave to Remain but not refugee status. This led to all kinds of problems later on and it deprived those concerns of their entitlements under international law.

What next for Zimbabwean claims? Fresh claims can be made by those who have no outstanding claims or appeals and upcoming appeals will be allowed on the basis of RN. Will the Home Office appeal? Probably. Will there be another CG case in a few months? Yes. Will the Home Office attempt to appeal allowed cases? Yes. Will the Home Office refuse to issue status papers until the new county guideline appeal is determined? I wouldn’t be surprised, but any delay once the Home Office’s appeal rights are exhausted can be challenged through judicial review.

(Source)

Zimbabwe opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai warned yesterday that negotiations on a power-sharing government with President Robert Mugabe must not be allowed to run on indefinitely.

“It can’t be forever,” Tsvangirai said in Strasbourg, northern France, during a rare visit to Europe. Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) faction said on Friday it would join the government only once a constitutional amendment was passed to comply with all the terms of the power-sharing deal signed two months ago.

“Neither Robert Mugabe nor ZANU PF has the legitimacy of forming any government or running this country in the absence of the consummation of the global power-sharing agreement,” MDC deputy leader Thokozani Khupe said after a party meeting.

Citing an alleged assassination plot against the MDC leadership and renewed violence, the party accused the ruling party of an “obstructionist approach, lack of paradigm shift and (an) entrenched power retention agenda”.

Mugabe has vowed to form a new government soon, after regional leaders proposed last weekend that the political rivals share the contentious home affairs portfolio. The proposal was rejected by the opposition.

Under the deal signed on September 15, Mugabe would remain president while Tsvangirai would be prime minister. But parliament must approve an amendment to establish the office of the prime minister and define its powers. Khupe said the MDC would not join the government until the amendment was in place.

Former United Nations secretary-general Kofi Annan and former US president Jimmy Carter are to visit Zimbabwe. They would travel with rights activist Graça Machel on November 22-23 , Annan said.

(Source)

1.         Background

The March 2008 elections in Zimbabwe were won by the MDC. The opposition party candidate for President of Zimbabwe, Morgan Tsvangirai, did not, however, win by the required majority to be declared winner. A second election was set for the 27^th of June 2008. Violence broke out in most parts of the country. Hundreds of opposition activists were killed, many more had their limbs hacked off, some lost their homes and food due to the attacks, and many women were raped. The terror was sponsored by ZANU PF henchmen, determined to ensure a Mugabe victory in the poll.

The opposition MDC leader was virtually unable to campaign in the election. What was meant to be his final star rally at Glamis stadium turned into a battleground as police fired tear gas to disperse the crowd that had gathered for the rally. Two days later, the MDC national executive took a decision to withdraw from the elections. The electoral commission went ahead with the election and Mugabe was declared winner. The international community cried foul and some African countries spoke out against Mugabe for the first time. Botswana took the lead among other countries. Mugabe faced a crisis of legitimacy.

The regional grouping, SADC, took the lead and encouraged the MDC and ZANU PF to talk. A memorandum of understanding was signed, laying a framework for the talks. The principal parties then took months to reach an agreement. The then South African president Thabo Mbeki, mediated in the talks. A deal was signed on the 15^th of September 2008. In the deal, Morgan Tsvangirai was to become Prime Minister and Mugabe remains President.

The crisis continues

As the leaders were talking, the Zimbabwe dollar continued to plunge and the governor of the Reserve Bank continued to print more money. Inflation sky-rocketed and officially it stands at 231 million percent. Life continues to be difficult for many Zimbabweans. Hunger is spreading like cancer throughout the country. People are hardly achieving three basic meals. While the country is on fire, the political leaders cannot agree on how to share ministerial posts in the new government.

The mediator had to be called back to mediate, but this time Mbeki was unable to solve the impasse. The SADC troika took over, but Mugabe continues to play the power game cards. The government denied Morgan Tsvangirai a passport, disabling him from leaving the country for any meeting outside Zimbabwe. The talks were under threat. The SADC troika failed to resolve the ministerial impasse. The matter was referred to the full SADC meeting. The meeting took place in South Africa. SADC recommended that the two parties co-minister home affairs. Tsvangirai rejected the recommendation, arguing that he should be granted full and sole charge of the key ministry, given that Mugabe retained full control of the defense ministry.

2.         Research questions and objectives

Since the talks were brokered, there are doubts in many Zimbabwean minds as to whether the talks will succeed or not. Many still do not trust the leaders of the political parties. ZANU PF faithfuls are urging Mugabe to pull out and MDC activists want Tsvangirai out too. The question is, what do Zimbabweans really want? Do people want another election or do they want a new constitution and then another election? Since the talks began, events have been restricted to political leaders and what the people want has hardly been heard.

This research seeks to investigate the Zimbabwe crisis from the people’s perspective, what is it that Zimbabweans really want to see out of the current situation.

Objectives

The main objective is to carry out a survey to gauge the temperature and feelings of the people in the current situation. The main objectives of the study are to

1.      Assess the extent of the food crisis in the country

2.      Assess the extent to which the socio-economic crisis has driven Zimbabweans to other countries

3.      Establish the main challenges people are facing daily.

4.      Evaluate the ZANU PF – MDC deal.

5.      Establish a way forward in the eyes of Zimbabweans

3.         Methodology

The survey was carried out in the six main cities, namely, Harare, Bulawayo, Chitungwiza, Gweru, Mutare and Masvingo. To ensure a credible report in the short period, sampling had to be representative and random.

To derive a representative sample in each city, each city was divided first by its urban areas and peri-urban areas. Urban areas were further split into several units that make it up. These units were referred to as districts for sampling purposes. Harare was divided into 15 districts. Each district was then allocated a number. Five numbers were selected at random, becoming the sampling sites. Budiriro was deliberately selected for the reason of being a key district in terms of opinion. The two nearest peri-urban areas were sampled for Harare. The strategy was repeated for all the cities.

A total of 35 districts were selected for sampling in the six cities, 23 urban and 12 peri-urban. One enumerator was assigned for each district sampling on average 100 respondents city districts and 60 in peri- urban centres.  The enumerator would select every fifth individual he/she meets in the street of the sampling area or an individual found on every 5th house inside the sampling area. Appendix 1 has a breakdown of all the cities and the total returns for each sampling site.

A one day workshop was organized to train enumerators and fine tune the questionnaire. During the training, the questionnaire was also translated into Shona and Ndebele, making it easier to administer in vernacular. Due to the limited time frame and challenges of intimidation enumerators faced, 64% of the questionnaires were returned.

4.         Results

Difficulties encountered collecting data

The political environment in the country is so polarized that the enumeration exercise was filled with incidents. Each team brought cases of intimidation, harassment and even assaults of enumerators. In one incident the enumerator had 24 of the questionnaires he had completed confiscated by the police. In Harare, one of the enumerators was asked to surrender his papers to members of the police force in rural Dema. He maintained that the questionnaires belonged to the government who were assessing the extent of the hunger crisis in the country. He asked for the force numbers of the police officers who wanted to confiscate his papers. The police took fright and released him.

The Bulawayo enumerator was not so lucky. He had 24 of his completed questionnaires confiscated by the police at Mbembesi. They accused him of carrying out the survey without police permission and clearance. Another Harare enumerator had to be whisked away at a brothel in Mabvuku after ZANU PF militia confronted him over the questionnaire. They wanted to know who sent them to work in their area.

In Gweru, MDC activists detained one of the Gweru enumerators demanding to know who had sent him to carry out the survey in their area. When the enumerator argued that this was professional work for the Institute for Social Science Research Zimbabwe, they did not listen. The enumerator had to phone the MDC Harare provincial Youth chairman, who is a member of the research network. It was only when his captors spoke to the chairman that the enumerator was released after 3 hours detention.

In Mutare one enumerator was assaulted by war veterans and sustained a minor injury on his head. They complained that the questionnaire implied that Mugabe was responsible for the suffering of the people of Zimbabwe. They resorted to violence and the enumerator had to run for his life. Masvingo reported similar incidences as well. The enumerator for Gokomere got 4 of his questionnaires torn to pieces after their respondents asked to recover their papers. They feared that the information could be used against them in future election campaigns.

All these incidents point to the level of intimidation in the country. Clearly, there is no democratic space in which to operate. Despite all these challenges, 64% of the questionnaires were returned. The sample is quite satisfactory given the limited timeframe for data collection. Sixty nine percent of the respondents are Shona, 19% Ndebele and 3% White.

A.     Food Crisis

·        Only 13% of the respondents can afford three meals a day, the rest afford one or two meals a day. Food types that are common on people’s meals include vegetables, wild fruits, hacha, and rice. The staple food, sadza is hardly available to most families.

·        People have hardly received food aid throughout the year. Eighty-seven percent did not receive food aid at all, 5% received the RBZ sponsored BACOSSI, while traditional food aid agencies such as Christian CARE have only reached out to 3% of the population. Of those getting food aid either through BACOSSI or various NGOs, 41% say there has been political interference in food distribution in their areas while 59% say there has been none.

·        A massive 92% of the population is in need of food aid.

B.     Socio-economic challenges

·        Since the year 2000, 43% of the population has made at least one attempt to leave the country. The two main reasons being fleeing the economic hardships and seeking employment. Popular destinations include South Africa followed by Botswana and the United Kingdom.

·        Of those that have not yet made an attempt to flee the country, nearly half of the population, 48% say they would like to leave. Considering the productive (working) age group to be 21 -50 years, 50% of the potential workforce want to leave the country right now. It is important to note that this is an unprecedented statistic in the history of any nation not at war.

·        Issues that resonate most with urbanites include food shortages, the cash crisis, lack of health facilities and a broken down education system.

C.     The Zimbabwe Deal

·        When asked whether they think the ZANU PF-MDC Deal will work, 50% responded yes, 46% no and 4% are not decided. Meaning there is a fairly good percentage of the population who has a hope in the deal. Breaking this down by the three main ethnic divisions, the Ndebele and Whites who are the smaller groups in the country are even more hopeful on the deal than the more dominant Shona, Table 1 below.

Table 1: Perceptions of the ZANU PF-MDC deal across ethnic devide

 ·        Half of the respondents, 50% believe that ZANU PF is the winner of the 15 September deal while 20% believe Mutambara was the real winner. Only 17% think Tsvangirai was the winner. Fourteen percent think the three parties benefited equally. In the minds of Zimbabweans, the winner is the party/candidate who lost the 29 March election but goes on to share power equally with the winner! Ironically Zimbabweans believe Mutambara got better stakes in the deal than Tsvangirai, the real winner of the March election.

·        The three main ethnic groups follow the same trend as the above, that Mugabe is the real winner in the deal.

·        In as much as Zimbabweans feel that the leader of the MDC, Morgan Tsvangirai was not the real winner of the deal, 89% still think that his stance on the talks is good. His stance is rated highly compared to the other two leaders’ positions, see table 2 below. However we must point out that Mutambara’s stance and what he represents was not clear to many respondents and had to be explained to them by enumerators.

TABLE 2: Respondents’ views on the stance of the three leaders

·        The priority list of issues to be urgently addressed by the new government include food crisis, health and education. These turned out to be the three main concerns for Zimbabweans. Interesting enough, the need for a new constitution and the land issue are far further down the list. Table 3 shows the priority list percentage. From the table Health and Education are key ministries for the recovery of the country.

Table 3: Respondents’ priority list of issues they want government to address first

A priority percentage is a hypothetical percentage derived from taking all the key issues raised as whole, allocating percentages according to frequencies the issue appeared from the respondents list.

·        When asked whether respondents believe the new government will solve the issues outlined above, a huge 90% believe so, with only 10% thinking otherwise. There is hope in the new government. Breaking down according to ethnicity, all three categories, Shona, Ndebele and White, believe that the new government will be able to address the issues raised Figure 1.

Figure 1: Zimbabweans’ perceptions on whether government will achieve their priorities across ethnic divide

D.    Elections and the way forward

·        The majority of Zimbabweans, 85%, have no confidence in the current electoral system. However 64% (compared to 36%) believe that elections can solve the problems the country is facing.

·        There was a split decision on whether people prefer elections under the current constitution but supervised by the UN versus a new constitution followed by another election. Fifty three percent preferred the former while 47% preferred the latter.

·        On how soon Zimbabweans want another election, 62% want them in the next 6 months, 28% 2years and 10% in the next 5 years. Clearly, people want an early election.

·        Should talks break down, or agreement fails to work, 64% of respondents said they are prepared to participate in a Freedom March. Of the 36% that are not ready, the overwhelming reason is fear. Breaking this down according to cities, Chitungwiza is least prepared with 38% saying they are ready for the march, Table 4. The statistics are even more interesting if broken down between urban and peri-urban voters, 71% are ready in urban areas compared to 63% in peri-urban areas. Only 31% of the whites are ready for the freedom march.

Table 4: The preparedness of cities for the freedom march

 ·        Fifty five percent of respondents say they are afraid of their safety. They fear most the security forces and ZANU PF militia/war veterans. Of interest is the fact that age has no statistical difference with one’s level of fear, X square = 0.41 d.f = 8. Whites are less afraid of their safety than Ndebele and Shona are. Thirty six percent of white respondents said they are not afraid of their safety compared to 55% and 52% respectively for Shona and Ndebele. Three quarters of those that are afraid of their security fear war veterans and security forces most, i.e. CIO, soldiers and the police.

·        Perpetrators of political violence should be tried and imprisoned if found guilty, 74% of the respondents believe. Seventeen percent favor the idea of a Truth Commission and 9% prefer total unconditional amnesty. There is evidence that people do not favor the idea of a Truth Commission at all, instead, they prefer a situation whereby people are tried and imprisoned for their crimes. Whites favour most the idea of justice on the perpetrators, with 90% preferring perpetrators’ to be tried and imprisoned (see Table 5 below).

Table 5: Respondents’ ideas on perpetrators of political violence

·        Mugabe, Gono, Chihuri, Chiwenga and Mbeki topped the list of individuals most responsible for the suffering of the Zimbabwean people. There is little hope for the country; 63% feel that Zimbabwe will collapse in the next six months. Only 31% think the country will recover, if God intervenes, said the respondents! See table 6.

Table 6: Respondents’ views of where Zimbabwe will be in six months

 5.         Conclusions and recommendations

Only 13% of Zimbabweans can afford three meals a day. The meals include vegetables, wild fruits and sometimes rice to those who can afford. A high 92% of the population in urban and peri-urban areas is in need of food aid. We conclude that the food crisis situation in Zimbabwe has reached unprecedented levels. Something must be done before people start dying.

Half the population has left or wants to leave the country. For a nation not at war, this is alarming. Those people leaving are fleeing the economic collapse, seeking employment in other countries, especially South Africa, Botswana and the United Kingdom. Of those leaving the country, 50% are of the working age group. This is not only a brain drain on the country, but also incapacitating the production sector.

Zimbabweans generally feel that the MDC - ZANU PF deal will work given a chance. However, people do not trust Mugabe and are generally suspicious that he is up to something. Half of Zimbabweans in urban and peri-urban areas think that Mugabe was the winner of the 15 September deal. They still feel, however, that Tsvangirai’s stance on the talks is good. Interestingly, the nation feel Mutambara got better stakes in the deal than Tsvangirai. We conclude that Zimbabweans have faith in the deal, if it is allowed to work by Mugabe.

Food, health and education are the three things the nation wants tackled by the new transitional government if it comes into power. A new constitution lies 6^th on the priority list.

Zimbabweans have no confidence at all in the current electoral system. However, there is strong hope in the ability of elections to solve the current challenges the nation is facing. If at least there be no election under the current constitution supervised by the United Nations, there must be another election in the next six months, under a new constitution. This again shows the hope Zimbabweans have in elections.

Perpetrators of political violence must be tried and imprisoned. The idea of a truth commission appears to have no takers. Zimbabweans want those who killed in the name of politics to stand trial rather than be pardoned.

Fear is common in many Zimbabweans. But in as much as there is fear in the people, more than half those interviewed feel they are ready for a freedom march. Not reading too much into this statistic, it must be pointed out that the 64% that are ready for the Freedom March may just be an expression of determination which may not necessarily mean one is ready to get into the streets and march. Chitungwiza is least ready for the freedom march, with 38% ready, compared to other cities. Whites are generally afraid to march in the streets should the freedom march be announced now. Given the fact that 64% are determined to march in the streets should they be called to, we conclude that democratic forces can build a critical mass to force Mugabe out of office, given time and careful planning.

The nation is doomed if Mugabe does not change. Zimbabweans believe that the agreement between ZANU PF and the MDC can work given the chance, but they do not think Mugabe is ready to give the nation that chance. His stance on the talks is bad, so the majority thinks.

This survey was carried out in urban areas and their hinterlands. Conclusions are therefore indexed to this category of people. We strongly recommend that this questionnaire be administered to rural households so that conclusions are based on the nation at large. A meaningful assessment of the hunger situation can only be done if the rural people are included. In any case, they are the ones who bear the majority of the scourge. There is a huge difference between the issues that resonate with rural folks and those in urban and peri-urban areas. These differences must be noted and hence the survey be carried out in rural constituencies too.

Appendix 1 : Sampling sites

(Source: by email)

Zimbabwe’s Movement for Democratic Change will join President Robert Mugabe in forming a unity government once constitutional amendment number 19 is passed into law, MDC deputy president Thokozani Khupe announced Friday.

Under the power-sharing deal brokered by SADC, Zimbabwe’s parliament must amend its constitution to pave way for the formation of a new government headed by Mugabe with MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai becoming prime minister.

The constitution has to be changed to enact the new government and to provide for the posts of prime minister and his deputy. The MDC also wants other outstanding issues such as the appointment of provincial governors to be cleared before they can join the unity government.

“Given the lack of sincerity and lack of paradigm shift on the part of ZANU PF, the MDC shall participate in a new government once Constitutional Amendment No 19 has been passed and effected into law,” Khupe, standing in for her boss Morgan Tsvangirai who is still out of the country following the SADC summit at the weekend, said in a statement.

“In the event of an illegitimate government being unilaterally formed, the MDC will not be part to the same and will peacefully, constitutionally and democratically mobilize and campaign against the illegitimate government.”

Khupe told reporters after an MDC executive meeting that the party’s top leadership had resolved not to join a government until all outstanding issues in the talks were concluded.

“Neither Robert Mugabe nor ZANU PF has the legitimacy of forming any government or running this country in the absence of the consummation of the global power-sharing agreement,” said Khupe.

The MDC deputy leader’s statement and remarks at the press conference seem to be varied slightly but all pointing to the fact that the MDC will no doubt be inolved in the new unity government once the constitution has been amended.

Khupe  also said the MDC had uncovered a plot to assassinate its leaders, further increasing chances that deadlocked negotiations will collapse but she did not expand on this allegation.

Attacking SADC for failing to deal with the Zimbabwe crisis at the weekend, she said: “Our issues were not addressed by SADC. All our issues were glossed over and narrowed down to the issue of the home affairs ministry.”

But she insisted that the MDC would not pull out of the power-sharing deal.

“We are committed and we remain committed to this dialogue,” she said.

The MDC implored on SADC and the AU, the guarantors of the unity deal, to step in to ensure a successful conclusion and finality to the cabinet impasse in Zimbabwe.

ZANU PF’s politburo has already urged Mugabe to form a new government with or without the MDC following the resolution by SADC that the feuding political rivals must co-share the disputed ministry of home affairs.

Apart from rejecting the SADC proposal to co-share the ministry of home affairs, the MDC accused the regional body of failing to resolve the issue of appointment of permanent secretaries, ambassadors, provincial governors and the formation of the National Security Council.

SADC, according to the MDC failed to resolve the ‘fraudulent and alteration’ of the document signed on September 11 and the one signed on September 15.

(Source)

Former UN secretary general Kofi Annan said Friday that he and former US president Jimmy Carter will visit Zimbabwe next week to find ways to ease the country’s deepening humanitarian crisis.

They will travel with rights activist Graca Machel, wife of former South African president Nelson Mandela, on November 22-23 on a mission to prevent the crisis from worsening, Annan said in a statement.

“Relieving the suffering of millions of people must be the priority of Zimbabwe’s leaders,” Annan said in a statement. “But global attention is also slipping as Zimbabwe’s humanitarian crisis worsens.”

Zimbabwe’s economy has been in free-fall for years, battered by hyperinflation last estimated at 231 million percent in July.

Although the country was once a food exporter, the United Nations estimates that five million people — nearly half the population — will need food aid in January.

Annan insisted that their mission was purely humanitarian and would not not touch on the protracted negotiations to form a unity government under a two-month-old power-sharing deal.

“However, we urge Zimbabwe’s political leaders to move swiftly to fully implement the September 15 agreement, particularly the provisions on humanitarian and food assistance,” he said.

“Delays in forming a government are prolonging the suffering of the people, Annan added.

Annan, Carter and Machel are members of the Elders: 12 world-respected statesmen with hands-on experience in conflict resolution.

The group was formed last year by Machel and Mandela on his 89th birthday.

(Source)

Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe secretly pleaded with his arch-rival, Morgan Tsvangirai, to join him in a unity Zimbabwean government after regional leaders instructed the leaders this week to form one immediately.

But Tsvangirai again declined and refused to name members of his Movement for Democratic Change to be appointed to a new unity cabinet. Tsvangirai earlier rejected a Southern African Development Community (SADC) leaders’ resolution to “co-manage” the crucial ministry of home affairs with Mugabe’s ZANU PF.

Upon arrival back in Zimbabwe on Monday after the SADC summit in Johannesburg, Mugabe vowed to appoint a cabinet unilaterally this week or next, but has since been holding back.

Sources said Mugabe had sent a senior emissary, Simon Khaya Moyo, a former cabinet minister and Zimbabwe’s ambassador to South Africa, to try to persuade Tsvangirai to come home immediately to co-operate in the forming of a new government in line with the SADC’s recommendation.

But Tsvangirai, who has remained in South Africa since the summit, turned down Mugabe’s plea.

Sources said Tsvangirai’s stance meant that Mugabe could now proceed to name a cabinet immediately.

Some observers believe he might wait for the MDC’s national council meeting on Friday, hoping that Tsvangirai will be overruled by a majority within his party and forced to join the unity government. A cabinet would then be named next week.

“Arrogance is Mugabe’s hallmark and he could have proceeded to appoint the cabinet without Tsvangirai soon after his hand was strengthened by SADC’s decision. But he also realises the futility of proceeding without Tsvangirai and hence his uncharacteristic effort of reaching out to him on Monday,” said a Zimbabwean government source.

A cabinet without Tsvangirai would probably guarantee Zimbabwe’s collapse as donors and investors are unlikely to deal with Mugabe alone. Even South Africa’s R300-million pledge to help resuscitate Zimbabwe’s mainstay agricultural sector was offered on conditional that a unity government was formed first.

Neither Tsvangirai nor Moyo could be reached for comment on Wednesday.

Observers believe it is unlikely that the MDC’s national council will overrule Tsvangirai and ask him to join the unity government

Eddie Cross, who is in charge of the MDC-T faction’s policy formulation department, warned this week that the MDC would have to make a tough decision.

In a circular entitled “What Next?” he said the decision on whether to proceed with the unity deal would “be the most difficult decision for the MDC since we were formed in 1999″.

“This time the consequences of rejection of a flawed deal for our people will be immediate and terrible,” said Cross, warning that up to a million Zimbabweans could perish of hunger.

Zimbabwe’s currency is worthless, with inflation officially at 231-million percent but calculated by the private sector at eight billion percent.

The World Food Programme said this week it had fed two million Zimbabweans in October, and expected to feed four million this month. It warned that it would not be able to continue the feeding programme because of a lack of donations.

Tsvangirai berated the SADC leaders over their “lack of courage to look Mugabe in the face and tell him that he is wrong”. He has called for the establishment of an “eminent persons group” to salvage the unity deal signed on September 15.

(Source)