1.         Background

The March 2008 elections in Zimbabwe were won by the MDC. The opposition party candidate for President of Zimbabwe, Morgan Tsvangirai, did not, however, win by the required majority to be declared winner. A second election was set for the 27th of June 2008. Violence broke out in most parts of the country. Hundreds of opposition activists were killed, many more had their limbs hacked off, some lost their homes and food due to the attacks, and many women were raped. The terror was sponsored by ZANU PF henchmen, determined to ensure a Mugabe victory in the poll.

The opposition MDC leader was virtually unable to campaign in the election. What was meant to be his final star rally at Glamis stadium turned into a battleground as police fired tear gas to disperse the crowd that had gathered for the rally. Two days later, the MDC national executive took a decision to withdraw from the elections. The electoral commission went ahead with the election and Mugabe was declared winner. The international community cried foul and some African countries spoke out against Mugabe for the first time. Botswana took the lead among other countries. Mugabe faced a crisis of legitimacy.

The regional grouping, SADC, took the lead and encouraged the MDC and ZANU PF to talk. A memorandum of understanding was signed, laying a framework for the talks. The principal parties then took months to reach an agreement. The then South African president Thabo Mbeki, mediated in the talks. A deal was signed on the 15th of September 2008. In the deal, Morgan Tsvangirai was to become Prime Minister and Mugabe remains President.

The crisis continues

As the leaders were talking, the Zimbabwe dollar continued to plunge and the governor of the Reserve Bank continued to print more money. Inflation sky-rocketed and officially it stands at 231 million percent. Life continues to be difficult for many Zimbabweans. Hunger is spreading like cancer throughout the country. People are hardly achieving three basic meals. While the country is on fire, the political leaders cannot agree on how to share ministerial posts in the new government.

The mediator had to be called back to mediate, but this time Mbeki was unable to solve the impasse. The SADC troika took over, but Mugabe continues to play the power game cards. The government denied Morgan Tsvangirai a passport, disabling him from leaving the country for any meeting outside Zimbabwe. The talks were under threat. The SADC troika failed to resolve the ministerial impasse. The matter was referred to the full SADC meeting. The meeting took place in South Africa. SADC recommended that the two parties co-minister home affairs. Tsvangirai rejected the recommendation, arguing that he should be granted full and sole charge of the key ministry, given that Mugabe retained full control of the defense ministry.

2.         Research questions and objectives

Since the talks were brokered, there are doubts in many Zimbabwean minds as to whether the talks will succeed or not. Many still do not trust the leaders of the political parties. ZANU PF faithfuls are urging Mugabe to pull out and MDC activists want Tsvangirai out too. The question is, what do Zimbabweans really want? Do people want another election or do they want a new constitution and then another election? Since the talks began, events have been restricted to political leaders and what the people want has hardly been heard.

This research seeks to investigate the Zimbabwe crisis from the people’s perspective, what is it that Zimbabweans really want to see out of the current situation.

Objectives

The main objective is to carry out a survey to gauge the temperature and feelings of the people in the current situation. The main objectives of the study are to

1.      Assess the extent of the food crisis in the country

2.      Assess the extent to which the socio-economic crisis has driven Zimbabweans to other countries

3.      Establish the main challenges people are facing daily.

4.      Evaluate the ZANU PF – MDC deal.

5.      Establish a way forward in the eyes of Zimbabweans

3.         Methodology

The survey was carried out in the six main cities, namely, Harare, Bulawayo, Chitungwiza, Gweru, Mutare and Masvingo. To ensure a credible report in the short period, sampling had to be representative and random.

To derive a representative sample in each city, each city was divided first by its urban areas and peri-urban areas. Urban areas were further split into several units that make it up. These units were referred to as districts for sampling purposes. Harare was divided into 15 districts. Each district was then allocated a number. Five numbers were selected at random, becoming the sampling sites. Budiriro was deliberately selected for the reason of being a key district in terms of opinion. The two nearest peri-urban areas were sampled for Harare. The strategy was repeated for all the cities.

A total of 35 districts were selected for sampling in the six cities, 23 urban and 12 peri-urban. One enumerator was assigned for each district sampling on average 100 respondents city districts and 60 in peri- urban centres.  The enumerator would select every fifth individual he/she meets in the street of the sampling area or an individual found on every 5th house inside the sampling area. Appendix 1 has a breakdown of all the cities and the total returns for each sampling site.

A one day workshop was organized to train enumerators and fine tune the questionnaire. During the training, the questionnaire was also translated into Shona and Ndebele, making it easier to administer in vernacular. Due to the limited time frame and challenges of intimidation enumerators faced, 64% of the questionnaires were returned.

4.         Results

Difficulties encountered collecting data

The political environment in the country is so polarized that the enumeration exercise was filled with incidents. Each team brought cases of intimidation, harassment and even assaults of enumerators. In one incident the enumerator had 24 of the questionnaires he had completed confiscated by the police. In Harare, one of the enumerators was asked to surrender his papers to members of the police force in rural Dema. He maintained that the questionnaires belonged to the government who were assessing the extent of the hunger crisis in the country. He asked for the force numbers of the police officers who wanted to confiscate his papers. The police took fright and released him.

The Bulawayo enumerator was not so lucky. He had 24 of his completed questionnaires confiscated by the police at Mbembesi. They accused him of carrying out the survey without police permission and clearance. Another Harare enumerator had to be whisked away at a brothel in Mabvuku after ZANU PF militia confronted him over the questionnaire. They wanted to know who sent them to work in their area.

In Gweru, MDC activists detained one of the Gweru enumerators demanding to know who had sent him to carry out the survey in their area. When the enumerator argued that this was professional work for the Institute for Social Science Research Zimbabwe, they did not listen. The enumerator had to phone the MDC Harare provincial Youth chairman, who is a member of the research network. It was only when his captors spoke to the chairman that the enumerator was released after 3 hours detention.

In Mutare one enumerator was assaulted by war veterans and sustained a minor injury on his head. They complained that the questionnaire implied that Mugabe was responsible for the suffering of the people of Zimbabwe. They resorted to violence and the enumerator had to run for his life. Masvingo reported similar incidences as well. The enumerator for Gokomere got 4 of his questionnaires torn to pieces after their respondents asked to recover their papers. They feared that the information could be used against them in future election campaigns.

All these incidents point to the level of intimidation in the country. Clearly, there is no democratic space in which to operate. Despite all these challenges, 64% of the questionnaires were returned. The sample is quite satisfactory given the limited timeframe for data collection. Sixty nine percent of the respondents are Shona, 19% Ndebele and 3% White.

A.     Food Crisis

·        Only 13% of the respondents can afford three meals a day, the rest afford one or two meals a day. Food types that are common on people’s meals include vegetables, wild fruits, hacha, and rice. The staple food, sadza is hardly available to most families.

·        People have hardly received food aid throughout the year. Eighty-seven percent did not receive food aid at all, 5% received the RBZ sponsored BACOSSI, while traditional food aid agencies such as Christian CARE have only reached out to 3% of the population. Of those getting food aid either through BACOSSI or various NGOs, 41% say there has been political interference in food distribution in their areas while 59% say there has been none.

·        A massive 92% of the population is in need of food aid.

B.     Socio-economic challenges

·        Since the year 2000, 43% of the population has made at least one attempt to leave the country. The two main reasons being fleeing the economic hardships and seeking employment. Popular destinations include South Africa followed by Botswana and the United Kingdom.

·        Of those that have not yet made an attempt to flee the country, nearly half of the population, 48% say they would like to leave. Considering the productive (working) age group to be 21 -50 years, 50% of the potential workforce want to leave the country right now. It is important to note that this is an unprecedented statistic in the history of any nation not at war.

·        Issues that resonate most with urbanites include food shortages, the cash crisis, lack of health facilities and a broken down education system.

C.     The Zimbabwe Deal

·        When asked whether they think the ZANU PF-MDC Deal will work, 50% responded yes, 46% no and 4% are not decided. Meaning there is a fairly good percentage of the population who has a hope in the deal. Breaking this down by the three main ethnic divisions, the Ndebele and Whites who are the smaller groups in the country are even more hopeful on the deal than the more dominant Shona, Table 1 below.

Table 1: Perceptions of the ZANU PF-MDC deal across ethnic devide

Ethinicity

Do you believe the ZANU PF-MDC deal will work?

Yes

No

Shona

50%

50%

Ndebele

59%

41%

White

64%

36%

 ·        Half of the respondents, 50% believe that ZANU PF is the winner of the 15 September deal while 20% believe Mutambara was the real winner. Only 17% think Tsvangirai was the winner. Fourteen percent think the three parties benefited equally. In the minds of Zimbabweans, the winner is the party/candidate who lost the 29 March election but goes on to share power equally with the winner! Ironically Zimbabweans believe Mutambara got better stakes in the deal than Tsvangirai, the real winner of the March election.

·        The three main ethnic groups follow the same trend as the above, that Mugabe is the real winner in the deal.

·        In as much as Zimbabweans feel that the leader of the MDC, Morgan Tsvangirai was not the real winner of the deal, 89% still think that his stance on the talks is good. His stance is rated highly compared to the other two leaders’ positions, see table 2 below. However we must point out that Mutambara’s stance and what he represents was not clear to many respondents and had to be explained to them by enumerators.

TABLE 2: Respondents’ views on the stance of the three leaders

 

Leader’s stance on the talks/deal

Good

Bad

Mugabe

15%

85%

Tsvangirai

89%

11%

Mutambara

29%

71%

·        The priority list of issues to be urgently addressed by the new government include food crisis, health and education. These turned out to be the three main concerns for Zimbabweans. Interesting enough, the need for a new constitution and the land issue are far further down the list. Table 3 shows the priority list percentage. From the table Health and Education are key ministries for the recovery of the country.

Table 3: Respondents’ priority list of issues they want government to address first

Issue

Priority percentage

Food Crisis

24.6%

Health

20.7%

Education

19.6%

Employment

9.2%

Cash crisis

7.2%

Constitution

5.0%

Transport

4.4%

Agriculture

2.8%

Water/Electricity

3.2%

Corruption

2.2%

Land Issue

1.1%

Total

100%

A priority percentage is a hypothetical percentage derived from taking all the key issues raised as whole, allocating percentages according to frequencies the issue appeared from the respondents list.

·        When asked whether respondents believe the new government will solve the issues outlined above, a huge 90% believe so, with only 10% thinking otherwise. There is hope in the new government. Breaking down according to ethnicity, all three categories, Shona, Ndebele and White, believe that the new government will be able to address the issues raised Figure 1.

Figure 1: Zimbabweans’ perceptions on whether government will achieve their priorities across ethnic divide

D.    Elections and the way forward

·        The majority of Zimbabweans, 85%, have no confidence in the current electoral system. However 64% (compared to 36%) believe that elections can solve the problems the country is facing.

·        There was a split decision on whether people prefer elections under the current constitution but supervised by the UN versus a new constitution followed by another election. Fifty three percent preferred the former while 47% preferred the latter.

·        On how soon Zimbabweans want another election, 62% want them in the next 6 months, 28% 2years and 10% in the next 5 years. Clearly, people want an early election.

·        Should talks break down, or agreement fails to work, 64% of respondents said they are prepared to participate in a Freedom March. Of the 36% that are not ready, the overwhelming reason is fear. Breaking this down according to cities, Chitungwiza is least prepared with 38% saying they are ready for the march, Table 4. The statistics are even more interesting if broken down between urban and peri-urban voters, 71% are ready in urban areas compared to 63% in peri-urban areas. Only 31% of the whites are ready for the freedom march.

Table 4: The preparedness of cities for the freedom march

City

Are you prepared for the Freedom March

Yes

No

Harare

62%

38%

Chitungwiza

38%

62%

Bulawayo

67%

33%

Gweru

71%

29%

Mutare

72%

28%

Masvingo

68%

32%

 ·        Fifty five percent of respondents say they are afraid of their safety. They fear most the security forces and ZANU PF militia/war veterans. Of interest is the fact that age has no statistical difference with one’s level of fear, X square = 0.41 d.f = 8. Whites are less afraid of their safety than Ndebele and Shona are. Thirty six percent of white respondents said they are not afraid of their safety compared to 55% and 52% respectively for Shona and Ndebele. Three quarters of those that are afraid of their security fear war veterans and security forces most, i.e. CIO, soldiers and the police.

·        Perpetrators of political violence should be tried and imprisoned if found guilty, 74% of the respondents believe. Seventeen percent favor the idea of a Truth Commission and 9% prefer total unconditional amnesty. There is evidence that people do not favor the idea of a Truth Commission at all, instead, they prefer a situation whereby people are tried and imprisoned for their crimes. Whites favour most the idea of justice on the perpetrators, with 90% preferring perpetrators’ to be tried and imprisoned (see Table 5 below).

Table 5: Respondents’ ideas on perpetrators of political violence

Ethnicity

What should be done to perpetrators of political violence

Unconditional amnesty

Confess and apologize before a Truth Commission

Tried and imprisoned if found guilty

Shona

8%

15%

77%

Ndebele

11%

27%

62%

White

2%

8%

90%

·        Mugabe, Gono, Chihuri, Chiwenga and Mbeki topped the list of individuals most responsible for the suffering of the Zimbabwean people. There is little hope for the country; 63% feel that Zimbabwe will collapse in the next six months. Only 31% think the country will recover, if God intervenes, said the respondents! See table 6.

Table 6: Respondents’ views of where Zimbabwe will be in six months

Where do you think Zimbabwe will be in the next 6 months?

Response

Recover

31%

Collapse/Worse

63%

No change

2%

Do not know

4%

Total

100%

 5.         Conclusions and recommendations

Only 13% of Zimbabweans can afford three meals a day. The meals include vegetables, wild fruits and sometimes rice to those who can afford. A high 92% of the population in urban and peri-urban areas is in need of food aid. We conclude that the food crisis situation in Zimbabwe has reached unprecedented levels. Something must be done before people start dying.

Half the population has left or wants to leave the country. For a nation not at war, this is alarming. Those people leaving are fleeing the economic collapse, seeking employment in other countries, especially South Africa, Botswana and the United Kingdom. Of those leaving the country, 50% are of the working age group. This is not only a brain drain on the country, but also incapacitating the production sector.

Zimbabweans generally feel that the MDC – ZANU PF deal will work given a chance. However, people do not trust Mugabe and are generally suspicious that he is up to something. Half of Zimbabweans in urban and peri-urban areas think that Mugabe was the winner of the 15 September deal. They still feel, however, that Tsvangirai’s stance on the talks is good. Interestingly, the nation feel Mutambara got better stakes in the deal than Tsvangirai. We conclude that Zimbabweans have faith in the deal, if it is allowed to work by Mugabe.

Food, health and education are the three things the nation wants tackled by the new transitional government if it comes into power. A new constitution lies 6th on the priority list.

Zimbabweans have no confidence at all in the current electoral system. However, there is strong hope in the ability of elections to solve the current challenges the nation is facing. If at least there be no election under the current constitution supervised by the United Nations, there must be another election in the next six months, under a new constitution. This again shows the hope Zimbabweans have in elections.

Perpetrators of political violence must be tried and imprisoned. The idea of a truth commission appears to have no takers. Zimbabweans want those who killed in the name of politics to stand trial rather than be pardoned.

Fear is common in many Zimbabweans. But in as much as there is fear in the people, more than half those interviewed feel they are ready for a freedom march. Not reading too much into this statistic, it must be pointed out that the 64% that are ready for the Freedom March may just be an expression of determination which may not necessarily mean one is ready to get into the streets and march. Chitungwiza is least ready for the freedom march, with 38% ready, compared to other cities. Whites are generally afraid to march in the streets should the freedom march be announced now. Given the fact that 64% are determined to march in the streets should they be called to, we conclude that democratic forces can build a critical mass to force Mugabe out of office, given time and careful planning.

The nation is doomed if Mugabe does not change. Zimbabweans believe that the agreement between ZANU PF and the MDC can work given the chance, but they do not think Mugabe is ready to give the nation that chance. His stance on the talks is bad, so the majority thinks.

This survey was carried out in urban areas and their hinterlands. Conclusions are therefore indexed to this category of people. We strongly recommend that this questionnaire be administered to rural households so that conclusions are based on the nation at large. A meaningful assessment of the hunger situation can only be done if the rural people are included. In any case, they are the ones who bear the majority of the scourge. There is a huge difference between the issues that resonate with rural folks and those in urban and peri-urban areas. These differences must be noted and hence the survey be carried out in rural constituencies too.

Appendix 1 : Sampling sites

City

Sampling Characterization

Urban

Peri-Urban

Site

Number of questionnaires

Site

Number of Questionnaires

Harare

Budiriro

83

Domboshava

30

Tafara/Mabvuku

82

Goromonzi

25

Avondale/Mt Pleasant

81

 

 

Highfield

83

 

 

City Centre

85

 

 

Total

 

414

 

55

Chitungwiza

Zengeza

68

Dema

20

Unit K

70

Seke

22

Makoni

67

 

 

Total

 

205

 

42

Bulawayo

Pelandaba

85

Mbembesi

24

Magwegwe

82

 

 

Luveve

83

 

 

Mpilo

77

 

 

Total

 

327

 

24

Mutare

Sakubva (Chineta)

87

Penalonga

44

Dangamvura

85

Chigodora

44

City Centre

90

 

 

Total

 

262

 

88

Masvingo

Rujeko

70

Gokomere

68

City Centre

69

Bondolfe

58

Mucheke

71

Nyika

59

 

Rhodene

61

Great Zimbabwe

60

Total

 

271

 

245

Gweru

Mkoba 7

73

Lower Gweru

27

Mkoba 19

70

 

 

Senga

71

 

 

Riverside

80

 

 

Total

 

294

 

27

Grand Total

 

1773

 

481

 

(Source: by email)