When Robert Mugabe was a young boy, he was shy, prone to worry, and desperate to please his mother. A recent biography tells of his amazing rise from a village upbringing to become an African statesman, leader of a people’s long struggle for independence, and then, tragically, his dismal failure in office: an angry and suspicious old man, haughty, ruthless, and desperate to please only himself. Mr Mugabe will be remembered for the ruin he has inflicted on Zimbabwe. True freedom for the people still awaits.

Whether Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the Movement for Democratic Change, can help Zimbabwe escape the yoke of Mr Mugabe’s rule is not yet clear. The two bitter rivals have signed a power-sharing deal, a complicated arrangement that leaves Mr Mugabe as President, makes Mr Tsvangirai Prime Minister, and promises a joint cabinet for decision-making. The army stays under Mr Mugabe’s control, while Mr Tsvangirai apparently has the job of fixing the devastated economy. With inflation running wild, at a rate which makes the local currency effectively worthless and drives Zimbabwe’s people ever deeper into poverty, that task is daunting.

Mr Mugabe may see this deal as a strategic concession, part of a tangled scheme to cling to power, and indeed, the early signs offer little encouragement to believe he is surrendering much. After only a week, talks have already stalled on which of the two parties will control important government portfolios.

Nor will the weekend ousting of neighbouring South African President Thabo Mbeki help to secure a stable government in Zimbabwe, at least for now. Mr Mbeki had been roundly criticised in the West for treating Mr Mugabe too gently, but in the end, he brokered the deal with Mr Tsvangirai. With Mr Mbeki the victim of his own power struggle at home, what little authority he carried to make demands of the notoriously defiant Mr Mugabe has disappeared, even if he stays on as mediator. Without a credible person to steer the deal through the difficult days ahead, the arrangement could collapse.

Yet Mr Mugabe may worry that Jacob Zuma, the man likely to eventually take over as South Africa’s president, will bring a tougher approach. After all, up to 1.5 million Zimbabwean refugees are estimated to have fled across the border, so South Africa has enormous interests at stake. Mr Zuma has shown little nostalgia for Mr Mugabe’s history of fighting white minority rule, instead, lambasting the regime for “riding roughshod over the hard-won democratic rights of the people”. If Mr Mugabe wants to foster a situation where he can leave office, free from prosecution, the current deal offers his last and best chance.

It certainly rankles that for all his crimes, Mr Mugabe could escape punishment. In this, Mr Tsvangirai’s dilemma is acute. He has consistently refused to call for a popular uprising against the regime, fearing the terrible toll this would take on an already battered people. Yet he has been derided abroad for running from a fight. His own safety has been under threat - last year he was bashed before a political rally, and this year he pulled out of presidential elections, citing fears of an assassination plot. Yet he is unwilling to simply wait for the 84-year-old Mr Mugabe to expire, and in the meantime allow the people’s suffering to go on.

Instead, Mr Tsvangirai has taken an enormous risk, to strike a deal with a man who deserves little trust. Any moves to prosecute Mr Mugabe will derail the precarious agreement. The blithe calls for justice by outsiders is fine sentiment, but does little to end Zimbabwe’s crisis. As Mr Tsvangirai explained during a visit to Melbourne last year, there are conflicting emotions on Mr Mugabe: “Land and race are intricately linked issues in Africa, so you find some people supporting him, not because he’s right, but because he’s one of our own.”

While Mr Mugabe will be at the United Nations in New York this week, no doubt denouncing Western imperialism as a way of distracting from his chronic misrule, the world should keep its attention on Mr Tsvangirai. He will need support to begin the painful task of building Zimbabwe, with food, supplies and sensible advice. There are risks. He cannot be seen as a Western stooge. Equally, if the world hangs back for too long, waiting to see who is really in charge, whatever opportunity this deal offers will vanish.

Zimbabwe needs an escape from Mr Mugabe’s tyranny. Even if this deal comes unstuck, importantly, it has shown change is possible. Better it comes sooner - Zimbabwe’s people have waited enough.

(Source)