(Or “Coup By Osmosis”)

A coup d’état (also coup) is the sudden, overthrowing of a government by a part of the state establishment - usually the military - to replace the branch of the stricken government, either with another civil government or with a military government.

Politically, the coup d’état is a type of political engineering, generally violent (hence “strike”, “blow”; French “coup“), but not always, yet differing from a revolution (by a larger, armed group to effect violent, radical change to the political system) in that the change is to the government, not the form of government…

…The coup d’état succeeds if its opponents fail to thwart the usurpers, allowing them to consolidate their positions, obtain the surrender of the overthrown government or acquiescence of the populace and the surviving armed forces, and thus claim legitimacy. Coups d’état typically use the power of the existing government for the takeover. As Edward Luttwak remarks in Coup d’État: A Practical Handbook: A coup consists of the infiltration of a small, but critical, segment of the state apparatus, which is then used to displace the government from its control of the remainder. In this sense, the use of either military or another organized force is not the defining feature of a coup d’État.

(Source: Wikipedia)

When we learn of coups d’etat in the world, it is normally punctuated with the sound of rifle fire and explosions. And some of the most harrowing violence we might ever see.

The coup d’etat carried out by Mugabe and his party with the support of the armed forces is probably the quietest ever carried out on the face of this earth.

Up until midnight on the 28th of March 2008, Robert Gabriel Mugabe was the President of Zimbabwe. Note that I do not describe him as the ‘duly elected’ President of Zimbabwe, as I do not believe that the 2002 Presidential elections voted him back into power.

(And Zimbabwean courts agree with me, finding that the election was influenced heavily by voter intimidation and political thuggery, but that Morgan Tsvangirai had indeed been defeated by means other than a free and fair ballot. The court, however, stopped short of ordering a re-run, or ordering Mugabe from office, as, they ruled, Mugabe has already taken office!)

So this time around, the country’s proletariat went to the polls thirteen days ago, and four days later we were told that the Movement for Democratic Change had won the majority in Parliament.

Since then we have heard little of the Presidential election results. Although we have heard much about the results. Doesn’t quite make sense, does it?

And the war of words have flown thick and fast ever since. The Deputy Minister of Information, Bright Matonga, has continually played up the buoyant spirit of Mugabe’s party, and has even given time to the much hated and vilified BBC. Just this afternoon, Matonga has stated that he does not understand the fuss about the Presidential election result, as the numbers are in the public domain. Not so far as I am aware - because then we would, in all likelihood, be witnessing the swearing in of a new President in Zimbabwe… namely, one Morgan Richard Tsvangirai of the MDC.

Mugabe maintains his stance as President of Zimbabwe, even though, on his own party’s admission, the election is due to go to a second round run-off - and although the MDC has done the mathematics based on the public figures posted outside the polling stations, and consider Morgan Tsvangirai to be the duly democratically elected President of Zimbabwe.

But there are a number of issues in his way before he will be sworn in as holder of that prestigious office - indeed, he would be the first democratically elected person to that office… And I have no doubt in my mind, that when all is said and done, Morgan Tsvangirai will hold that office.

First of all, the MDC has to get ZANU PF to accede to the releasing of the results. That, in itself, will be a veritable minefield.

The election administration was overseen by an ostensibly autonomous Electoral Commission - appointed by Mugabe himself. That negates the word ‘autonomous’… Thirteen days after the close of polling stations, we wait for something to give - primarily from the Zimbabwean High Court, where a Justice is due to give a ruling on Monday.

It took the same court four days to acknowledge, after much legal argument, that the application for the release of said results was indeed ‘urgent’… Cast your mind back to 2002, and you will maybe recall that the results were released in just three hours. As at 7pm Zimbabwean time this evening (Friday, 11th April 2008), the results have been withheld for a total of 312 hours. The difference between this time and last equates to something on a par with the current inflation rate!

The Presidential elections are obviously known to ZANU PF, who repeatedly state that a run-off is the next step, but they are not telling…

The function of the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission has been taken over by ZANU PF - well, they will tell you, “the government”, and have dismantled the election command centre and have whisked away the ballot boxes to an as yet undisclosed location. The “government” are now taking any decisions in the stead of the ZEC.

Constitutionally, which obviously does not apply to ZANU PF or Mugabe, any Parliamentary seat recounts have to be requested within 48 hours of the publishing of those seat results. Given that the last seat results were made public on Wednesday last week, and today we discover that 5 seats are being recounted - with a further 9 under consideration - we must question under what regulation, statue or law are these to be reconsidered?

The authority for these recounts is wrongfully in the hands of the “government” and therefore any decision will be based on ZANU PF wants and needs.

They have been stalwart in their resistance to publishing the Presidential election results - their legal representative stating in court that releasing them would be ‘dangerous’.

I also was taken aback this morning to discover that Mugabe had re-appointed his cabinet to office, seven of which are people who lost their seats in the Parliamentary election! The announcement was made by Patrick Chinamasa, now a civilian in every sense of the word, having lost his seat in the Parliamentary ballot… who now masquerades under his former title of Minister of Justice (now there is an oxymoron!).

Or should that just be ‘moron’?

So we have an illegally parked President, and a resident cabinet that is not the people’s choice.

Add this together with the ongoing farm invasions up and down the country - even though the dubious ‘leader’ of the war veterans states that no invasions are taking place - this would then lend credence to the document that was published on the internet this week that the invasions are being conducted by appointed serving soldiers masquerading as veterans.

This would also suggest that the country is, in reality, being run by the military junta of Constantine Chiwenga (army), Perence Shiri (air force), Augustine Chihuri (police) and Paradzai Zimondi (prisons). According to quite a few articles on the internet, and it is very difficult to chose any one that has definitive proof for their stories - not because of their predilection to printing false stories, but because of the wall of silence from the ZANU PF/military fortress - that Mugabe was prepared to stand down and cede power to Morgan Tsvangirai, but this was stopped by the chiefs who do not want to face the music for their actions over the last three decades.

Articles state that Mugabe’s wife, Grace, had attempted to convince him (and the security force chiefs) that it was not worth his children’s sanity to continue. His sons were being bullied at school over their father’s actions.

Armed soldiers and police patrol the streets of the cities and towns, and the election result release has hit somewhat of a lopsided stalemate.

ZANU PF, no longer the ‘ruling party’, maintains control of what little still exists of the economy, and, perhaps, more importantly, the Reserve Bank, seen as an integral part of Mugabe’s rule. Once Mugabe is displaced, I believe that the full enormity of the financial damage of his rule will be uncovered, leaving the new authority with little option but to pursue criminal proceedings against the former President and his hierarchy.

This is why his military chiefs are adamant that Mugabe make a stand.

Their biggest fear is the inside of a prison cell.

We have to admit, that sheer stubbornness and the hunger for power and absolute control, has resulted in the quietest coup d’etat ever in Africa, and possibly ever known to man.