As a long-time commentator of all affairs Zimbabwean, I was a little surprised, and then perplexed, at the entry by Simba Makoni into the Presidential race at the end of next month. Probably because Mugabe himself hasn’t seen fit to comment on the announcement by one of his own, a former finance minister in Mugabe’s government.

I have spent the better part of two weeks reading opinions from all and sundry, across the internet, and even now, I find myself confused, wanting and unable to home in on any rational opinion.

That the Zimbabwean people want change, are due change and deserve change is unquestionable. The problem being that what the good people of Zimbabwe want is not necessarily what they get.

Political forces (and I use the words advisedly) are at work in all sectors of the Zimbabwean culture and community, the majority of them negative and sponsored by the Mugabe government.

But let’s talk about Simba Makoni. A mere puppy at 57, Makoni has stepped into the Presidential race and this has not only angered many a politician in ZANU PF, but has also got the country abuzz with rumour, hopefulness and promise. Outside Zimbabwe opinions may be a bit more reserved but the hope still remains.

Is Makoni the man to deliver Zimbabwe from its fate under Mugabe? Will Mugabe actually allow one of his own to contest him in open elections, or is he really a stooge for the ruling party, brought in as a ‘fall guy’ to ‘legitimise’ the election?

The Mutambara-led faction of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) has welcomed Makoni, and has already indicated their willingness to form a coalition with him, their leader deciding not to stand for President, preferring to make way for Makoni.

The Tsvangirai-led faction of the MDC, decidedly the bigger of the two factions, has announced that their leader will stand for President. This is not the first time that Tsvangirai has been in this much-vaunted position. It is believed that he beat Mugabe in a straight count-out in 2002, but that political sleight of hand and an determined misruling by the High Court in Zimbabwe denied Tsvangirai the right to rule the nation.

And since that time we have seen the lights of Zimbabwe dim, and go out. Millions of her people have fled the homeland - either because of political oppression, or out of economic need – or the people just needed to get away from Mugabe’s rule - like my immediate family.

Tsvangirai, in Johannesburg this week, stated in an address that anyone who is anti-Mugabe is an ideal candidate for standing in an election opposite Mugabe. But at the same time, he reminded those he addressed that Makoni has been a member of the ruling party’s politburo for many years and is, therefore, by commission or omission, guilty of the same evils visited upon the people by the Mugabe administration.

Tsvangirai welcomed Makoni to the political ‘sharp end’ stating that many an opposition activist in Zimbabwe has experienced Mugabe’s terror first-hand - in the form of arrest, torture and incarceration.

Tsvangirai was accused some time back of planning the assassination of Mugabe and was brought to court on charges of treason, but the State case fell to pieces when one of their key witnesses failed to remember the script. Tsvangirai was cleared.

But he is still the object of much of Mugabe’s brutality. Last March Tsvangirai was hospitalised along with many members of his party, when a payer meeting was turned into an orgy of violence by the ZRP, the CIO, war veterans and youth militia.

Who can forget the photographs of Tsvangirai lying in a hospital bed with a cracked skull, or Lovemore Madhuku of the NCA with a broken arm, Grace Kwinjeh and Sekai Holland lying in hospital beds, their bodies beaten black and blue by Mugabe’s thugs?

And Mugabe praised his armed forces and the militant arms of his political party for the beating they handed out - on international television! And threatened to have it done again!

Tsvangirai told Makoni that he will, no doubt, experience the ruling party’s hand of terror before the election was done. And this was no threat. This is the reality of opposition politics in Zimbabwe.

I note that Mugabe himself remains tight-lipped about Makoni’s announcement to join the fray.

Is this because Mugabe is beside himself with rage, or is it because the Makoni question is another ZANU PF ploy to fool the already bewildered and broken public?

In the week before Makoni’s announcement, Mugabe and Makoni met and Mugabe reportedly ‘crushed’ the idea of a rebellion from within his own ranks. (Just how you ‘crush’ a rebellion in a straight sit down chat, I will probably never discover…) The following Tuesday, Makoni surprised many people with his announcement. The ruling party took a few days to deliberate amongst themselves and then issued a statement that Makoni had “expelled himself” from ZANU PF… Makoni rejects that, stating that he has done nothing that is covered by the ruling party’s constitution that warrants his expulsion.

Makoni maintains that he is still ZANU PF - but I feel that people would be happier if he were to fight an independent campaign.

One thing that has come out into the public domain since Makoni decided to oppose Mugabe, is that he has the backing of two former military supremos - namely Solomon Mujuru (husband of the second Vice President, Joice Mujuru) and Vitalis Zvinavashe. It is known and acknowledged that Solomon Mujuru exercises quite a bit of power from his former subordinates. He also enjoys a large following from the war veterans - used many times by Mugabe to bring terror and chaos to the people of Zimbabwe.

Mugabe would be left in the cold if his former fighters were to abandon him and give their support to Makoni/Mujuru/Zvinavashe. This is underlined in a report today that the Mugabe government is intent on repossessing over 1400 farms from veterans who have failed to produce any crops. The war veterans have stated that that will never happen and that they are prepared to fight for the land which they fought the chimurenga for…

That ‘his’ veterans are prepared to fight his government for the land – whilst his senior administration own farms which lie fallow and unworked - will displease and worry Mugabe, whilst empowering the perceived Makoni support.

Today, it emerges that Mujuru has been held under house arrest by the CIO and that he is under suspicion of fraud. I find it questionable that the Mugabe government should decide to bring charges against one of their own (Mujuru also sits on the politburo - ZANU PF’s decision making body) and that those charges relate to dishonesty.

Rather like the statement in the Bible… “Let him amongst you that is without sin cast the first stone.”

Mugabe’s government lost the right to accuse anyone of any crime until such time as they clean up their own act and make good the wrongs of the past.

And we are all aware that Mugabe will never admit any wrong. Not now, not ever.

Mugabe’s words are his biggest tool. And he uses that tool often, but sadly chooses to repeat accusations against the West instead of attending to the real root of the problem - his own rule.

Zimbabwe is the only country in the world where you can be charged in a criminal court for agreeing with Mugabe… (Mugabe calls himself “Hitler - tenfold”, but his police force took a woman to court for calling Mugabe “Hitler”!)

In respect of Mugabe’s treatment of his own people, let u take a quick look at his treatment of the Matabele tribe since he took office.

The Gukurahundi - the unleashing of the Korean-trained Fifth Brigade on the people that Mugabe most hated, accusing them of supporting the dissidents. The dissidents were a result of his own cadres forcing the men either out of the new National Army, or pushing them into positions that they were unable to maintain - but this escapes the ruling party’s attentions. The divisions within the Army were on tribal gounds.

Something in the order of thirty thousand people were killed by the Fifth Brigade before Mugabe finally called time - decided by the signing of the Unity Accord with Joshua Nkomo in 1987.

Nkomo was appointed as a Vice President of Zimbabwe, and many Ndebele feel he sold them out. Nkomo died of cancer in July 1999.

Neither Mugabe nor any member of his armed forces, including the officer commanding the Fifth Brigade, Perence Shiri, a relative of Mugabe, have ever been brought to book for these activities. Mugabe has refused to apologise for the Gukurahundi, stopping short by calling it merely a “moment of madness”.

Many hundreds of families in Matabeleland live in poverty as the breadwinner in their families was killed at that time.

More recently Mugabe refused to declare an emergency in the southern provinces of Matabeleland with regard to water. At one time the province was down to less than one day’s supply of water. Mugabe is the only person in the country with the necessary authority to declare such an emergency.

Many years ago, Mugabe’s government stated that the country would be ‘better off’ being of only six million in number. At that time there was talk of the Matabele being somehow wiped off the face of the map. Mugabe has always treated the Southern half of the country and its people with disdain.

Joshua Nkomo’s party was absorbed into ZANU PF and only mere remnants of that party remain, but at least where they are, they state their case. ZAPU lives on, if only in name.

Whilst all this was happening, where was Makoni? During the chimurenga - the bloody and bitter bush war against Ian Smith’s unilaterally independent Rhodesia - he was studying at University in the United Kingdom. Not very long after independence, at the grand old age of 30, Makoni was appointed to Mugabe’s cabinet. Although he had a rather public falling out with Mugabe that cost him his ministerial position, Makoni has been a key member of the politburo for many more years than we can shake a stick at.

So - if he was always intent on standing against Mugabe in the Presidential race, why wait until now? Was his announcement that he would oppose Mugabe something like political suicide? Believe me, if Makoni loses the election, there will be no place for him in Zimbabwe ever again - even as a law-abiding member of the public…

People question the timing. They also question the lack of any team behind Makoni. He claims that many senior and powerful members with Mugabe’s government are behind him, but as yet we are none the wiser as to whom these individuals are.

If Makoni were to win the election, would we as Zimbabweans be happy with a President (seen as somewhat of a rebel) and a sitting government representing another party? Has he really got a team behind him, or, in the event of his winning, would we only then see those loyal to him crawl out of the wordwork?

Others ask if this is not another sleight of hand by Mugabe? We all know that he bullied the opposition to give him the required support to pass the latest constitutional amendment (and then pulled out of the mediated talks, leaving the MDC with little or nothing for their ten months of negotiation) which would allow Mugabe to name his own successor.

There have been many objections to this, but the more objections, the more determined Mugabe was to have this amendment passed.

Is Makoni not really Mugabe’s chosen successor, just worked so that he (Makoni) is made to look like the messiah, when, in actual fact he is Mugabe’s man all along?

It sounds very convoluted, by it is not beyond Mugabe who is renowned for pulling the most audacious moves within government in Zimbabwe. Mugabe has such power within his own party that his word is law, and very few people who oppose him survive in the political world thereafter.

There are, however, a few exceptions. Jonathan Moyo, for example. But he is in the political wilderness as opposed to the political scrap heap.

Mugabe has many enemies and most of them he has neatly tied up within his own administration, giving credence to the saying “keep your friends close, and your enemies closer”.

As Zimbabweans, we must never be surprised at any move by Mugabe. Ten to one any move is designed to empower his position. Nothing is done for the good of anyone else.

Mugabe uses the good manners and common sense of others to commit heinous crimes against his own people, and we should be aware that the Makoni question will only be answered when, and if, he were to win the Presidential election. Unless and until that happens, we may never know the true nature of Makoni’s rise to the challenge.

Robb WJ Ellis
The Bearded Man
14th February 2008