Messages From Zimbabwe

I saw this article and felt that I would be remiss if I did not look closer at the whole thing. A simple article that details just how Mugabe managed to steal the march on the MDC in 2002, and how the courts managed to dodge judgement until it was way too late and the damage was done.

The point of the article, I believe, was to show the betrayal of the Zimbabwean people of the election observers who decreed the election ‘free and fair’ some 10 days before a single ballot paper had been cast.

Further, “South African observers in Harare saw well-behaved queues of people determined to vote, however long it took, but who would be unable to exercise their democratic right because Mugabe had dramatically reduced the number of polling stations in urban opposition strongholds. Manuel may have forgotten that Brigadier-General Douglas Nyikayaramba from Zimbabwe National Army headquarters organised the army to run the presidential election of 2002.

He claimed to have retired from the military at the time. After the poll, he was given a previously white-owned farm at Nyabira, 40km north of Harare. The election machinery which Nyikayaramba controlled also delayed people who eventually got to the front of the endless queues to cast their votes in high-density areas. Movement for Democratic Change president Morgan Tsvangirai immediately challenged Mugabe’s victory in court. More than two years after the election and seven court orders later, he eventually got access to ballot boxes in 12 constituencies. The documented results of the search showed that the results announced by the election “command centre” run by the army in Harare did not coincide with the ballot papers in the boxes. There was also some double voting, 2 000 in one rural constituency, but no ballot box stuffing.

The command centre was off limits to journalists. The South African observers certainly did not check out the command centre in 2002, and did not even know there was one in the 2005 general election. Despite voting delays - tens of thousands in Harare never got to vote - secret last-minute voter registration, appalling violence against opposition polling agents, candidates, supporters etc, Tsvangirai actually won the 2002 presidential poll by a small margin. Mugabe’s 15% victory was manufactured by the army in the command centre. So, Zimbabweans had tried very hard to effect democratic regime change.“

As I have stated more than a few times on “The Bearded Man“, Mugabe is not the democratically elected leader of Zimbabwe - Tsvangirai is… But Mugabe’s political meddling has put paid to that and his judiciary ensured that he remained there.

Now, to turn the tables, if it is illegal to look with disdain at the President of Zimbabwe, or indeed to even think badly of him, then what crime is Mugabe - who is not the elected leader - guilty of by ordering his goons to beat the truly elected leader of Zimbabwe?

Surely Mugabe’s crimes are worse than we really realise, and for Tsvangirai to state that the country would not be seeking retribution for his acts against Zimbabwe and the people, is truly the statement of a leader…

“Maybe it is recent events Manuel was thinking about when he became cross in parliament: that many Zimbabweans who want democratic regime change have not been doing their cause much favour in recent times. The vibrant young MDC had already started sliding into disunity even before the presidential poll, but certainly we, the foreign press, didn’t know that. The first known intra-party violence took place in June 2001, when a young woman activist in Harare was beaten up by thugs loyal to Tsvangirai, accused of being sister to the secretary-general, Welshman Ncube. She wasn’t his sister; she just shared the same common surname. Tsvangirai’s call for a boycott of senate elections in November 2005 was enormously successful. But there was, as usual, no follow-up, and so the momentum disappeared and Mugabe became the winner, as he could use the senate seats further to extend his patronage to a new bunch of Zanu PF cronies. And it has been downhill all the way since then.“

Indeed - an article laced with consequences and unanswered questions…

Take care.

‘debvhu

I first read this expression when used by MDC President Morgan Tsvangirai. Initially I thought that I knew what he meant, but as events have transpired in Zimbabwe lately, I have come to realise that I was wrong.

I thought that the point he referred to was a point where the country’s economy can no longer sustain itself, and no amount of repair jobs or support structures put in place by the ruling party can stop the inevitable.

The ultimate collapse and the beginning of the end of the country Zimbabwe as we know it…

But as we watch the ruling party helping themselves to just about everything that isn’t tied down, and some that is, I now think that Tsvangirai is talking about something else.

ZANU PF is now taking whatever they can to feed themselves and to sustain their extravagant lifestyles. Mugabe just spent an amazing amount of money on the latest, most up to date Mercedes sedans for his 34 ministers.

Where did he secure the money for the purchase?

Simple. He instructed Gono to print more useless Zimbabwean bearer cheques which he then had changed on the black market and used the resulting proceeds to buy motor vehicles which his ministers don’t need.

Mugabe is threatening to take over non-performing companies. Some of the companies that are non-performing are in that situation because of the price slash Presidential order which ensured that selling prices were halved and produce and goods were forcibly sold under their cost price.

There is no business anywhere in the world that can sustain that sort of business.

So Mugabe has set up the company grab and will not hesitate to initiate it when he believes the time is right. Probably a little closer to the elections at the beginning of next year.

And we have seen how the SADC leaders have chosen to ignore Mugabe’s activities against his own people. And they have chosen to be suckered by Mbeki’s false hope report that mediation is the answer and on track.

Now this is where I now believe the “tipping point” to be…

When the Zimbabwean people, a self-respecting, honest people, who have been subject to so much ridicule, wholesale theft, violence, human rights abuses and the loss of the most basic of human dignities - when their patience has worn so thin and their hunger is unbearable, when their personal needs outweigh their political rights and their political wants – that is when they will finally draw a line in the sand and say, “So far, and no further!”

Mugabe, of course, will see this as a nonsensical challenge - and, in all likelihood, will call on the services of his war veterans, his youth militia, the army, the police and the air force - to batter, beat and torment the people once again.

But his armed forces, his veterans and his militia are also struggling under his rule. And instead of going up against the people, the people and Mugabe’s assumed allies, will go up against the government.

And I don’t think it will be a huge rush - a bang, bang, thank you ma’am affair - no, this will be a gentle rise in political temperature and the result will be inevitable, almost preconceived change in political ardour.

Not a public uprising - more a shift or pace and sensibilities - a change of political opinion which will oust Mugabe and his administration in the blinking of an eye.

Yes - there will be bloodshed. Yes - there will be loss of life. But who, in the opposition, or allied to that establishment, would baulk at that option if, by their death, a country like Zimbabwe is freed from the shackles of a desperate, aging and increasingly paranoid Mugabe?

My reading of the situation - that’s all.

Take care.

‘debvhu

The SADC summit has come and gone. Mugabe did his thing – a dramatic entrance, full of bravado and an entourage that included Mogadishu type pickup trucks with mounted machine guns and security thugs with dark glasses.The despair of the international community and others around the world was palpable.

The reality on the ground however was very different. This time there was a united position on Zimbabwe, friend and foe, Mugabe faced his toughest SADC summit ever. Behind closed doors his fellow regional Presidents told him in no uncertain terms that the crisis in Zimbabwe had gone on long enough, was damaging the prospects of the region and impacting on their own economic and social situations.

In addition they looked at a serious proposal from the region to step up to the plate with an emergency stabilisation package worth several hundred million US dollars (paid for by the region itself) - a first and very encouraging. This was attached to tough conditions - complete the negotiations taking place under the South African facilitation process and then abide by the agreement and carry it out before any assistance is made available and even then not to the Zimbabwe government directly. Mugabe has few who trust him any longer in the region.

Behind closed doors and with tight security in place, the talks between the MDC and ZANU PF continue. On its own this is a remarkable achievement as there is no way that ZANU PF would be talking to the hated opposition if they had any alternative options.

So the stage is set for some fairly dramatic developments - what and when is not clear or even available. Even the aggressive SA media machine has not been able to crack the SA blanket of secrecy about the situation - just those periodic remarks by Mbeki that the situation is under control and the process making progress, not as fast as they would have liked, but progress.

I am the eternal optimist and suffer for this when it comes to trying to set out a possible future scenario. But there are a few things we can set our compass to. The first is that in the end we (the democrats and those who want the best for Zimbabwe and her people) will win this struggle. That has been true throughout history, even though it might take longer than anticipated. Eventually the good guys win. It took England several centuries to overthrow the Feudal system that kept its people in chains and servitude.

It took the Russian people over 70 years to throw off the savage yoke of Communism. It took South Africa over 40 years to dismantle the Apartheid machine. If we can do it in 10, we will have done well historically.

Secondly, we know this situation is not sustainable and the regime here simply does not have the resources or the environment to sustain itself. For ZANU PF this is a terminal situation, they have no where to go from here on; they are facing a blank wall with no alternative escape routes. Africa is moving on and with West Africa having dismantled the regime of Charles Taylor and then seen him delivered to the Hague, they know that this is a very real prospect here. The region of the SADC has also moved on - SADC is a fast growing block of democratic States who are proud of their new status in the global community. They know they have to deal with the bad apples in this basket or be tainted as a whole.

Thirdly, the international environment is much more hostile to rogue regimes than in the past. Look at the pressure piling up over the behaviour of the Sudan, Somalia, North Korea and Burma. New governments in France, Canada and the UK are all going to be principled and uncompromising towards the Mugabe regime. That also goes for even places like Portugal. The new members of the EU are almost universally hostile to political tyrannies - they know all about what they do to the people they control (I avoid using the word govern).

No one gives a damn for a small country like Zimbabwe, but they do have concern for the region as a whole. We have struggled to get where we are - South Africa after a century of struggle against racial oppression, Angola and Mozambique after decades of struggle against a colonial past and then civil and regional wars. Zambia after decades of failure under UNIP, Malawi after Banda, the Congo just emerging from the nightmare of the post colonial era. All these gains are threatened by the collapse of the Zimbabwean economy and the very real threat of instability and violence.

I saw an article in a major South African newspaper this week saying Zimbabwe could collapse by Christmas. Define collapse please? Does it mean that the country no longer can feed, clothe and house its people? Does it mean that energy and water systems are collapsing and are unable to meet even basic needs? Does it mean that 70 per cent of all jobs are lost, the people affected forced to flee in order to survive? Does it mean that telephone systems are now so run down that you cannot dial out to another country in the region or make a local call without great effort and considerable time?

If it does, then we have collapsed. Our modern economy is no longer functioning. Many, if not most firms are now living on their reserves and face imminent collapse. If they do, putting Zimbabwe back together again is going to be tough and expensive. In my own small group I have had 8 employees quietly pack up and leave for South Africa. They see no future. We lost nearly Z$3 billion in the past two months and an executive in the largest food company in the country told me today they were losing Z$2 billion a day. We are fighting back and striving to hold things together, others are just quitting. In company after company staff are just sitting around - idle and concerned. Will we have jobs next month? The feeling of despair is everywhere.

No - this situation simply cannot go on. Has SADC done enough this past week to rescue us from ourselves? My own judgment is maybe just enough, but they cannot do it alone. We need everyone to make that final effort that will get us through this nightmare. Battles are won in the final stages of conflict, before that it’s just a fight. We are on the winning side, we will win, we are nearly there, make the effort.

Eddie Cross
Bulawayo, 23rd August 2007

Howzit

I am cheating - but it has been a long day, and I don’t want to leave this page without something new at the very least.

I wrote the same on my Mukuru.net blog page… (Whispers: “Sorry!”)

I have lived in the UK for just shy of 9 years - and sadly, I can report to you that the weather here is horrible. I have told people that I would really enjoy being a weatherman here. I wouldn’t go to the office, but would rather phone in each morning and say’ “It’s going to be cold and wet!”

If I am wrong, which won’t be very often, who’s going to complain?

That being said, I had occassion twice this week to turn my trusty camera skywards. The original intention was to check the weather as I hoped to take some snaps of the meteor shower, but the cloud cover was low - very low.

In the very early evening (remember that the sun sets after 8 in the evening at this time of year), I saw that the cloud cover was double layered. The bottom layer was bubbling and boiling nicely, and then there was a hole in the layer through which I could see the sun drenched layer above…

And then, 48 hours later - in a total about turn, we were treated to this by way of a sunset last night…

As I said to a dear from in Harare by email, whilst Mother Nature has a serious knack of turning out the most awesome colour/light shows for us, the scenes here will never be a spot on the electrical storms of Africa…

(Note: If you click on any of the thumbnails above, it will take you to the picture viewer on Mukuru - just so you know…)

Take care.

‘debvhu

Howzit

I saw an article on the internet this afternoon that angered me. Thabo Mbeki - he of the mediation talks which never happened - has thrown his lot in with Robert Mugabe and blames the United Kingdom for much of the chaos there!

Sorry?

So the UK has had a hand in the Land Reformation, Operation Murambatsvina, Operation Sunrise and the latest price roll back exercise?

Give me a break!

Mbeki is doing this so as not to incur the wrath of Mugabe if he were to give a negative report to SADC next week in Lusaka, But has he any choice? Nothing has happened and he must report it as that.

And the reason that nothing has happened is down to the very man who he is siding with! Mugabe put measures in place months ago to ensure that any mediation would be stymied. He has even told the world - those that bother to take notice that is - that he views the mediation as a ‘politeness’ to SADC - nothing more.

So if his heart wasn’t in it, and he has effectively wasted 5 months, Mbeki has really got no choice, although I still can’t fathom out just what it is about Mugabe that no one wants to say anything against him.

John Howard called him a ‘grubby dictator’ and the rest of the world shook the heads in sympathy - not with Howard - with Mugabe!

I am quite sick of the free and democratic world sitting back and watching events from afar, with the soft understanding of their companions, collectively sighing at the problem - but doing nothing to help…

My blood pressure is now sky high – so before I burst a vessel, I’ll stop here…

Take care.

‘debvhu

Howzit

As I wrote in my main blog this morning, I didn’t know whether to be insulted or relieved that my page(s) weren’t included in the list of sites that the Mugabe government have decided are anti-Mugabe and with which they will start a ‘cyber war’ - whatever that may be.

As I have written for tomorrow’s posting, I have been through the entire list - 41 sites - and find the need that Mugabe-ites have to redirect traffic away to not only be misplaced, but in some cases, entirely incorrect.

Some of the sites listed either do not exist (“insider” as opposed to “inside”) or have little or nothing to do with Zimbabwe - the sites just being a conduit to news from within Zimbabwe, including their own ever-gloating pro-ZANU PF mouthpiece, The Herald.

In a way, I think that this list does us all a favour as it shows us the paranoia that the government lives within. Not that we ever doubted it - but it does mean that their attention is elsewhere and is not totally on the ball, which they broke, lost and sold a very long time ago.

And yet Mugabe is in Malaysia attending an anti-poverty conference.

Why did the Mugabe government not chose to use the money spent to fly Mugabe and his entourage to Malaysia on purchasing medications, food or fuel for the struggling country?

Would the money not have been better spent in this way?

Take care.

‘debvhu

In an attempt to get the book “Without Honour” into the public domain, I have reduced the retail price to just £9.99 + postage. My return on this is negligible, but becoming a rich man is not my objective.

The link to the relevant Lulu page is here…. I will leave this price in place for just 50 days - that is, until and including 23rd September 2007.

Other news on the book front is that I am working on my second book, which, at this time, masquerades under the working title of “Three Blind Mice” - I will be sure to keep you informed.

Take care.

‘debvhu

No doubt - if you are a follower of news in Zimbabwe - you would have read of the exploits of one Jocelyn Chiwenga, wife of the defence forces chief in that country.

Jocelyn Chiwenga

I decided to do a little digging on the internet to learn more about this woman.

I read an article which briefly explained she was a ‘knickerless’ prostitute who initially married a Dutch man before having an affair with Constantine Chiwenga. He left his wife, and she her husband and they have been together ever since.

Jocelyn famously stated that she “had not tasted white blood” since 1980, when in 2002 she invaded a white-owned farm 30km East of Harare.

She went on to disobey a High Court order instructing her to leave the farm. She commandeered the farm, the vehicles, the homestead, the crops and did so with a stick of heavily armed soldiers obeying her beck and call.

The farmer reported how she had refused to shake his hand in greeting, as she did not want to shake the hand of a “white pig”…

She later ordered her soldiers to shoot “the white bastards” and although the soldiers cocked their weapons, they did not open fire… Chiwenga went on to describe herself as the “new Mbuya Nehanda” and boasted that she was “filthy rich”.

Chiwenga also told the farmer that Vice President Joseph Msika had “no balls” after he reported the matter to him. She claimed that no one had the power to remove them from the farm.

The farmer’s losses – just in material loss, not the crop – were then calculated to be in the region of US$20 million. I wonder what that would calculate out today. The Chiwengas had promised to pay the farmer compensation if he kept the story out of the press, but he has never been paid.

In March 2003, Chiwenga assaulted a journalist Gugulethu Moyo, who was in police custody. No charges have ever been brought to bear against her.

Now she has assaulted a photographer. And now is suing a newspaper for all that they have written about her. And her email to the newspaper’s office is the rant of a person clearly on the edge of reason. She threatened to double and then triple to amount - claiming the third billion would be “for the poor”.

She has admitted to the assault on international radio.  But we don’t see the police taking any action.

In all this, I don’t see a word of caution from the upper echelons of ZANU PF, nor a consoling word from her husband.

Why do we not hear from them? Because they see this incident as another reason to sink the barb in deeper. Actions speak louder than words, and the continued silence from the regime indicates that they associate themselves with the actions of this woman.

I also find her husband’s silence of some concern. The lack of a statement would seem to indicate that the senior man of the defence forces sanctions the actions of his wife.

Good luck to ‘em.

Take care.

‘debvhu

I fell over this paragraph and a line in an article I blogged on yesterday on The Bearded Man. And it got me thinking.If Mugabe had Chihuri imprisoned during the Chimurenga, then why has he seen fit to appoint him as Commissioner of the Z R Police?

If Mugabe had Chihuri imprisoned during the Chimurenga, then why has he seen fit to appoint him as Commissioner of the Z R Police?

“Senior and junior police officers suspected of being sympathetic to the MDC have been systematically purged from the force by the highly politically partisan police commissioner. Chihuri was arrested and incarcerated in ruthless conditions on the orders of Mugabe in Mozambique during Zimbabwe’s war of liberation.

He has in no way concealed his support for ZANU PF and President Mugabe.”

There is one answer and it is either that his incarceration made him meek and mild and therefore he would toe Mugabe’s line, or is it because Mugabe admired his spunk after being jailed?

I have scoured the internet in the past 2 or 3 hours trying to find any mention of this anywhere else and have been singularly unsuccessful. Of course, they may be reference to it elsewhere, but Chihuri would, in most likelihood be referred to using his Chimurenga name – which I, unfortunately, do not know…

I wonder if anyone out there knows?

Take care.

‘debvhu